***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 -5.9 -5.1 -4.2 -1.2 34.5 44.6 -5.5 -3.1 -0.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 -6.8 -7.1 -4.7 -2.0 27.2 38.7 -6.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 -3.5 -2.9 -4.3 -1.5 30.5 41.8 -2.8 -1.5 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -9.5 -8.5 -7.4 -1.6 33.7 40.4 -8.7 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -4.9 -5.0 -6.0 -0.9 37.0 45.8 -5.0 -2.7 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 -6.7 -5.7 -7.9 -0.3 43.4 48.9 -6.7 -4.7 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -5.7 -6.0 -4.5 -1.9 28.1 39.5 -5.6 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -10.2 -9.1 -7.3 -0.1 45.2 50.6 -9.9 -8.5 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -4.6 -3.9 -6.0 -1.1 34.7 44.5 -4.3 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -3.4 -7.0 -0.6 40.8 47.7 -4.6 -2.7 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -4.1 -6.6 -0.7 39.6 46.8 -4.9 -2.6 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -5.9 -4.0 -6.9 -0.3 44.4 49.5 -6.1 -3.8 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -5.2 -5.3 -7.0 -0.4 40.7 48.6 -5.7 -3.3 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -4.0 -4.3 -6.5 -1.7 33.1 40.5 -4.4 -1.6 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -4.8 -3.9 -6.3 -1.7 32.0 38.1 -3.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -4.1 -7.1 -0.7 39.7 46.9 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 -6.3 -7.0 -4.9 -2.2 27.4 36.8 -5.0 -3.0 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -7.1 -5.4 -7.4 -0.7 42.0 47.2 -6.1 -4.0 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 -6.4 -6.5 -4.8 -1.9 27.6 39.4 -5.6 -2.4 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -10.5 -9.3 -7.5 0.4 51.6 54.1 -10.1 -9.3 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 -5.3 -4.7 -4.8 -1.2 34.5 44.1 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -6.8 -6.3 -5.0 -2.2 27.1 37.1 -5.9 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 -6.5 -5.2 -5.0 -1.8 29.0 40.1 -4.8 -2.6 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -5.1 -4.9 -6.2 -1.3 34.5 42.4 -5.0 -2.5 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -5.8 -4.6 -5.1 -1.1 36.9 45.1 -4.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 -5.4 -4.1 -6.6 0.2 48.1 52.4 -5.3 -3.9 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -6.0 -4.8 -4.5 -1.1 37.1 45.4 -5.2 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -6.6 -5.5 -7.2 -1.7 33.3 39.3 -5.6 -4.1 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -7.9 -6.4 -7.6 -0.1 46.9 50.4 -7.6 -6.0 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 -5.5 -5.9 -4.5 -1.8 28.6 40.4 -5.6 -2.7 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------