***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 57.3 58.5 -3.2 -1.5 -0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -1.8 -2.1 -2.6 -0.3 48.6 47.1 -4.5 -2.1 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 -0.6 -0.7 -1.8 0.6 53.6 54.3 -2.9 -0.9 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 -5.0 -5.1 -4.3 0.8 51.5 53.6 -9.0 -5.2 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.9 1.3 60.1 59.9 -3.4 -2.2 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -2.4 -2.7 -3.9 2.7 71.3 69.8 -4.2 -3.3 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -1.6 -1.8 -2.6 -0.2 50.0 48.9 -4.4 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -6.4 -6.0 -4.1 2.0 63.6 64.2 -9.5 -6.7 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 -1.7 -0.8 -2.9 1.4 62.5 60.8 -2.8 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 -2.2 -2.1 -3.9 1.6 61.0 61.5 -4.0 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 -2.2 -1.8 -3.2 1.6 63.7 62.3 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 -1.4 -1.9 -3.3 2.1 67.3 65.3 -4.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 -2.4 -1.8 -3.4 1.9 66.6 65.1 -3.2 -2.6 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 -1.0 -1.5 -4.0 0.2 45.9 48.6 -3.3 -1.1 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 -3.4 -0.9 -2.3 1.5 63.4 61.6 -4.6 -3.8 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 -1.5 -1.0 -3.5 1.8 65.7 63.8 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 -2.2 -3.2 -3.2 -0.7 43.4 43.2 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -3.7 -3.6 -4.8 0.9 54.2 55.5 -4.8 -3.8 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -1.4 -1.6 -2.6 -0.1 49.4 48.3 -4.6 -1.6 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 -7.2 -6.1 -5.1 1.8 63.3 63.9 -9.0 -7.7 -5.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 -2.0 -1.8 -1.9 1.1 58.0 58.6 -3.2 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -3.5 -3.0 -0.7 42.6 43.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 0.3 50.7 51.3 -4.0 -2.3 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 -2.2 -2.3 -3.5 0.7 53.5 53.9 -4.1 -2.4 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 1.2 57.2 58.2 -3.6 -2.2 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -1.3 -1.5 -2.5 3.0 70.5 71.8 -3.6 -2.7 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 -1.6 -1.4 -1.8 1.0 57.2 57.9 -3.8 -1.9 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5 1.2 57.5 57.3 -5.5 -3.5 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 -4.2 -3.2 -5.3 1.3 58.6 59.2 -7.0 -4.5 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.2 0.1 51.5 50.5 -4.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------