***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 48.9 108.4 60.2 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.7 43.3 101.1 54.4 49.4 14.6 22.1 34.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 39.8 40.7 48.4 106.5 58.9 55.4 22.9 37.3 41.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 44.9 47.6 55.8 112.6 59.8 59.0 35.7 41.2 50.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 44.8 48.9 55.2 111.8 59.2 58.2 33.1 41.8 51.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 38.5 45.1 56.7 111.6 65.1 59.5 26.4 35.0 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.3 21.3 43.1 101.8 53.9 49.9 19.2 21.0 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 68.4 69.7 61.3 111.7 60.2 58.5 48.9 65.2 71.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 33.0 32.1 55.5 110.7 57.9 57.8 23.3 30.6 37.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 44.4 41.5 59.4 110.0 57.8 57.2 32.1 41.0 45.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 37.8 41.1 54.1 113.1 62.2 59.2 26.6 34.3 44.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 43.2 44.3 53.9 110.3 61.8 58.3 24.4 38.8 46.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 46.8 55.5 55.7 111.2 62.8 60.3 28.4 41.4 57.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 53.0 56.3 57.6 106.4 56.1 55.7 38.7 50.3 64.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 33.6 31.6 55.0 113.7 59.3 58.3 17.5 27.0 36.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 37.4 37.4 54.3 113.8 63.7 60.8 22.8 31.3 40.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.5 25.2 41.9 101.1 52.5 49.0 20.6 24.7 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 42.2 47.4 64.5 108.9 57.6 56.7 30.9 39.6 49.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 33.2 30.2 44.7 102.2 56.2 50.9 21.1 28.7 35.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 45.4 52.2 81.9 115.3 64.2 59.8 28.6 42.8 54.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 35.5 39.8 52.4 110.6 59.1 57.8 26.6 33.2 42.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 31.7 30.4 44.2 102.4 54.3 49.8 19.5 28.7 38.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 31.8 33.9 48.2 104.7 58.5 54.3 21.7 29.3 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 48.2 47.8 57.2 107.7 57.0 56.1 38.1 46.2 54.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 39.8 41.5 54.3 107.2 56.8 55.5 26.1 37.1 45.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 41.4 45.8 58.5 115.3 64.1 62.0 21.4 37.7 47.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 33.1 39.4 51.7 106.7 58.3 54.5 21.0 27.9 41.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 35.4 35.8 55.1 114.2 61.6 59.5 18.0 29.9 39.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 69.6 74.8 70.4 110.0 59.4 57.1 52.6 66.9 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.3 26.1 44.4 102.3 57.0 51.0 18.5 23.0 37.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------