***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 89.1 55.2 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.1 8.9 80.4 48.4 46.6 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.4 8.0 10.4 85.9 53.4 49.9 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.7 13.4 100.1 57.9 53.0 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.9 13.1 98.6 55.9 52.7 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.7 15.2 107.7 58.3 52.9 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.8 8.9 84.2 51.1 47.5 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.6 14.3 100.6 55.9 51.1 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.9 9.7 12.7 93.6 55.5 51.6 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.1 14.0 97.1 56.1 52.0 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.3 11.4 13.2 103.4 55.9 52.6 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.0 13.7 12.9 102.3 55.3 50.4 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.5 11.8 14.0 107.5 56.6 52.0 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.5 12.7 85.5 54.3 49.3 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.6 13.3 99.6 59.2 51.5 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.1 13.6 106.9 58.0 52.5 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.7 8.9 83.9 52.6 46.9 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.2 15.4 96.4 58.0 52.9 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 4.2 9.2 79.2 48.3 46.0 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.2 19.1 105.0 58.9 54.8 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.3 10.9 11.6 91.8 56.0 52.0 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.1 9.4 84.7 50.8 46.9 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.3 10.0 79.5 50.4 46.4 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.2 13.1 89.7 55.8 51.1 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.5 7.2 12.0 94.3 55.4 52.0 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 14.0 107.2 60.0 52.5 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 6.7 11.0 91.8 55.7 51.1 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.2 13.7 101.2 58.9 52.1 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 24.9 17.0 100.2 60.4 53.6 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.9 3.7 9.2 82.0 49.9 47.4 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------