***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 88.8 52.7 46.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.5 10.4 91.6 56.6 47.9 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.7 11.1 98.5 57.9 50.4 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.7 12.3 99.9 60.2 50.7 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.3 13.0 108.2 66.2 53.6 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.8 14.1 107.2 65.3 53.0 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.6 10.5 91.4 57.8 47.8 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.9 15.0 106.9 60.6 53.3 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.8 13.3 110.7 66.5 54.7 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.3 11.8 14.8 112.4 64.0 55.0 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.1 13.1 112.9 67.5 55.2 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.3 13.1 104.6 62.4 53.1 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.7 13.5 103.0 62.1 52.9 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.5 14.8 114.2 64.7 56.5 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.1 11.3 93.7 57.5 48.9 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.1 13.0 107.9 65.7 54.1 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.1 9.3 10.4 95.2 58.6 49.2 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.3 16.3 111.3 60.8 54.3 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.8 10.7 95.8 56.9 49.9 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.2 19.3 99.0 55.9 50.3 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.9 12.0 104.0 61.6 52.7 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.9 10.9 96.4 58.4 50.1 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.8 11.7 104.5 59.1 53.5 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.8 14.3 112.1 61.3 55.0 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.1 11.9 90.8 52.8 47.4 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.1 13.3 97.3 58.1 50.5 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.9 11.3 87.6 51.3 45.3 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.6 12.2 101.9 61.0 51.2 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.3 12.2 17.6 106.8 58.2 52.9 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.8 10.4 90.8 55.6 47.4 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------