***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 93.9 56.7 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.8 8.1 83.3 53.9 46.1 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.7 9.0 90.1 53.9 45.9 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.2 10.1 98.9 57.2 49.1 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.1 10.2 98.2 53.9 48.6 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.1 10.6 99.7 55.0 50.0 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.3 8.0 83.0 54.8 46.9 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.6 16.2 11.1 97.1 52.3 47.5 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.1 10.4 97.0 51.7 48.3 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.3 11.1 96.4 51.2 47.7 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.9 9.8 100.0 56.1 48.7 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.4 9.6 95.2 52.6 46.8 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.5 9.9 94.7 50.3 47.3 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.8 10.7 88.1 49.6 46.2 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.9 9.9 101.8 62.3 51.6 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.4 9.6 98.8 55.6 48.5 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.4 4.5 7.7 82.3 56.7 47.0 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.4 12.1 94.3 52.4 47.4 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.8 1.8 8.4 84.8 51.3 45.8 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.0 14.7 97.9 55.9 47.7 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.8 97.6 56.3 47.6 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.7 8.1 84.3 51.4 46.1 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.0 9.0 86.3 50.0 45.5 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.6 90.0 49.7 46.0 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.8 7.4 10.4 92.6 53.0 46.0 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.0 10.2 95.7 51.4 48.3 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.0 10.1 92.0 55.3 46.1 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.4 9.7 100.4 59.0 50.5 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.8 15.6 13.2 95.0 53.2 47.4 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.8 8.4 85.1 53.1 45.9 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------