***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 18.9 157.9 80.1 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 8.9 11.9 15.9 149.3 77.1 68.2 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 13.8 18.0 17.8 148.8 78.5 68.0 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.5 14.4 20.0 146.6 77.7 69.5 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.7 18.9 138.0 73.3 66.8 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 9.2 10.6 16.8 130.3 70.6 65.6 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 9.0 12.7 15.6 148.1 77.3 68.4 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.4 20.8 139.0 73.5 66.7 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.4 11.0 19.1 137.9 74.9 65.8 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 11.7 13.7 19.5 131.0 71.4 63.6 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 9.3 10.9 17.9 131.9 69.6 64.5 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.4 10.3 18.3 134.7 73.1 66.1 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 10.5 11.2 18.3 135.3 75.3 68.1 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.0 22.0 19.4 136.8 76.5 64.8 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 11.7 15.9 20.6 154.9 79.3 71.2 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.6 9.8 18.0 137.1 76.2 68.0 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 9.7 12.2 14.8 141.4 77.3 67.6 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 12.6 14.7 20.6 131.6 73.0 63.9 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 10.9 13.2 16.4 148.5 77.2 67.7 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 11.3 12.4 28.8 158.9 78.4 71.6 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.1 12.3 18.9 144.5 77.2 67.1 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 10.7 12.9 15.7 142.0 75.2 66.9 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 11.1 13.5 17.5 147.6 77.4 67.6 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.8 19.7 19.3 137.3 75.7 65.3 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.6 12.8 20.0 147.4 75.8 67.9 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 10.4 13.0 21.0 157.1 78.9 74.7 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 10.7 14.1 19.4 152.7 78.0 69.4 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 7.1 9.0 19.5 149.3 78.8 70.3 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 21.9 23.9 22.6 136.7 73.3 65.5 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 10.7 13.5 16.5 151.0 76.4 68.4 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------