***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 0.5 59.2 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.6 4.3 0.0 49.9 51.6 2.6 3.6 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.3 5.2 0.5 59.9 56.3 3.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.0 0.4 3.0 0.5 55.9 55.7 -1.7 0.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.7 4.2 0.9 65.2 60.4 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.3 6.7 3.5 1.5 72.1 67.3 3.1 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.4 4.2 0.1 50.7 52.4 2.1 3.3 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -0.2 -0.8 3.6 1.0 68.2 62.0 -2.7 -1.6 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.6 4.9 0.9 65.6 60.3 3.9 5.2 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.0 4.2 0.9 66.3 60.9 3.7 5.0 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 7.8 7.3 4.4 1.1 68.9 63.1 3.6 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 7.3 7.1 4.2 1.2 70.5 64.0 4.1 4.7 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 7.9 7.6 4.1 1.4 71.5 66.2 3.7 5.0 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.7 4.7 0.4 59.3 55.1 3.8 6.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.5 3.0 0.1 52.9 52.4 3.1 5.5 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 8.1 8.0 4.1 1.3 70.3 64.6 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.4 3.8 -0.3 47.5 49.1 2.2 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.1 3.8 0.7 63.6 59.1 2.6 4.2 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.9 4.6 0.0 51.3 52.2 2.8 3.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.6 60.7 58.7 1.0 1.7 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.2 5.1 0.7 64.0 58.6 3.5 5.2 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.0 4.0 -0.4 45.2 48.4 2.7 4.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.3 4.9 0.2 55.1 53.3 3.0 4.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.0 4.8 0.6 62.8 57.5 4.1 5.7 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.3 3.6 0.5 56.9 55.8 2.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.5 7.0 3.8 1.4 72.1 67.4 4.0 4.6 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.4 4.2 0.5 58.4 56.2 3.1 4.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.9 6.9 3.3 0.5 58.4 56.6 3.5 6.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 3.3 2.5 3.0 0.7 63.1 59.2 0.3 1.8 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.1 3.9 4.6 0.2 52.9 53.4 2.7 3.4 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------