***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.7 0.2 48.3 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.2 5.4 0.2 47.4 52.7 2.4 3.5 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.8 3.6 5.9 0.3 48.3 53.3 2.8 4.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -0.8 3.9 0.0 50.0 51.5 -3.2 -0.8 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.7 4.6 0.1 47.9 52.2 2.7 4.0 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.3 3.3 0.1 49.6 53.1 2.7 5.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.8 5.3 0.2 48.7 52.8 2.1 2.9 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -4.6 -2.2 3.7 0.0 47.5 52.2 -4.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.2 5.3 0.1 46.6 52.6 2.7 4.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.1 4.4 0.0 45.9 52.3 3.2 4.9 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.7 4.5 0.1 48.4 52.4 3.4 5.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.7 4.3 0.0 48.1 52.7 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.3 5.3 3.8 0.0 48.9 52.9 3.3 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.1 5.2 0.1 46.5 52.4 3.3 4.3 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.5 4.0 -0.1 50.0 51.3 3.1 4.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.3 4.1 0.1 49.3 52.7 3.5 5.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.0 5.0 0.1 46.7 51.6 2.3 3.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.7 4.2 4.0 0.0 44.6 52.2 2.8 4.6 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.8 5.6 0.2 46.5 53.0 2.2 3.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -0.5 1.3 1.9 -0.1 45.2 51.5 0.6 1.7 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.9 5.6 0.2 47.7 52.8 2.6 4.1 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.3 3.4 5.3 0.0 45.5 51.4 2.6 3.9 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.3 5.8 0.2 47.1 53.0 2.4 3.9 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.9 5.2 0.1 45.3 52.8 3.1 4.5 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.6 4.3 0.1 49.5 51.9 2.2 3.8 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.0 3.6 0.1 49.3 52.8 3.4 6.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.5 5.0 0.2 48.8 52.6 2.6 3.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.4 4.1 0.0 50.6 51.8 3.7 4.3 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -0.9 1.4 3.1 0.0 44.5 52.0 -0.9 1.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.0 2.6 5.6 0.2 48.1 53.1 2.1 3.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------