***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.5 0.4 56.4 54.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.0 5.1 0.3 51.3 54.0 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.2 5.7 0.4 55.7 54.4 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 3.4 2.2 3.8 0.5 55.8 55.1 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.7 8.2 4.5 0.6 56.8 55.3 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 8.2 7.9 3.7 1.1 61.2 58.6 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.8 5.0 0.3 51.7 53.9 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.6 0.4 4.0 0.8 59.5 56.8 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.7 5.2 0.5 56.1 54.8 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.0 4.6 0.7 56.8 55.6 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.0 4.6 0.7 58.9 56.4 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.9 8.7 4.5 0.9 60.1 57.3 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 8.6 4.2 1.0 59.4 57.9 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.8 9.7 5.4 0.5 57.2 54.4 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.3 3.7 0.3 52.3 54.5 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.0 4.3 0.8 58.8 57.0 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.9 4.8 0.2 51.2 53.1 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.4 7.3 4.2 0.6 57.3 55.0 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.7 5.4 0.3 52.1 54.0 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 2.3 0.7 57.2 55.6 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.3 5.5 0.5 55.9 54.7 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.4 5.1 0.2 51.7 53.0 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 7.7 5.8 0.4 53.4 54.0 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.0 5.3 0.5 56.9 54.6 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.0 4.1 0.4 56.0 54.7 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.1 7.7 3.9 1.0 58.6 58.8 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.4 4.7 0.4 56.4 54.8 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.7 9.4 4.0 0.5 55.4 55.4 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.6 4.8 3.4 0.7 56.8 55.3 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.3 5.3 0.3 52.8 54.2 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------