***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 2.8 -1.0 40.1 45.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.0 2.3 2.4 -1.4 38.1 43.5 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.4 2.9 3.2 -0.9 42.0 46.5 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -2.2 1.4 -0.5 44.5 47.2 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.9 2.3 -0.3 48.2 49.9 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.6 2.1 0.9 53.6 58.0 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.6 1.3 2.2 -1.3 38.5 43.6 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.7 2.2 0.3 51.1 54.7 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.5 3.0 -0.3 49.9 50.1 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.9 2.6 0.1 50.4 52.7 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.2 2.6 0.1 51.4 53.1 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.7 2.7 0.4 53.1 55.2 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.5 2.5 0.7 53.9 57.0 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.0 3.1 -0.5 45.3 48.7 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.7 1.3 -0.7 41.6 45.2 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.8 2.4 0.4 53.2 54.5 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.6 2.1 -1.5 35.6 42.7 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.4 2.5 0.1 49.7 53.2 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.1 2.5 2.7 -1.3 39.4 44.0 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 49.3 54.8 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.7 3.1 -0.6 45.6 48.0 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.9 2.4 2.4 -1.5 36.6 42.5 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.9 2.5 3.1 -1.1 41.8 45.3 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.5 3.2 -0.3 47.0 50.2 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.0 1.6 -0.8 42.3 45.9 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.5 5.0 2.5 0.8 54.3 58.7 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.2 2.2 -0.9 40.9 45.4 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.4 1.7 -0.4 45.8 48.2 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.4 1.8 0.2 48.6 54.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 0.7 2.2 2.6 -1.3 38.4 44.2 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------