***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 2.2 74.4 71.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.3 4.1 4.3 0.9 61.4 59.6 0.2 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 6.7 8.3 5.8 2.1 71.0 70.0 0.9 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 2.5 3.4 2.7 1.9 72.1 67.2 -2.9 -0.3 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 8.0 9.3 5.3 3.3 84.2 78.7 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 6.7 8.7 4.9 3.9 88.8 83.7 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.9 4.7 4.3 1.1 63.2 61.4 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 1.1 1.8 4.4 2.8 76.9 74.7 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 8.6 10.1 6.2 3.2 84.3 78.4 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.2 8.4 5.2 2.9 77.8 74.7 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 8.3 9.4 5.8 3.6 86.4 80.7 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 8.6 10.4 5.3 3.4 84.2 80.1 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 7.8 9.4 6.0 3.9 88.6 83.6 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 4.6 7.3 5.0 1.3 62.2 61.2 1.1 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 3.5 4.4 2.8 0.9 60.2 59.3 1.0 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 8.9 10.5 5.7 3.8 88.4 82.7 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.5 3.2 0.1 54.7 51.4 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 3.5 4.7 4.5 2.2 64.4 68.0 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 3.3 5.4 4.6 1.0 62.0 60.5 -0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.6 57.2 62.6 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.4 8.9 6.2 2.8 79.2 75.6 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.1 3.2 -0.2 49.5 48.6 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.5 5.4 5.1 1.2 63.2 61.9 0.6 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 7.1 7.4 5.5 2.1 66.8 67.5 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 5.6 6.2 4.2 2.1 74.4 70.6 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 6.1 7.2 5.2 3.7 85.8 84.1 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.0 8.1 5.0 2.2 74.7 71.7 0.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 6.6 7.1 3.4 2.0 71.4 67.6 2.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 2.9 3.8 3.7 2.0 60.4 65.9 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.0 5.6 4.9 1.4 65.4 64.6 -0.1 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------