***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.3 0.5 51.7 54.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -3.0 -1.8 0.3 49.1 54.4 -4.9 -2.9 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.5 -1.6 0.3 47.7 54.0 -2.8 -1.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -9.1 -7.2 -3.8 0.2 48.2 53.1 -9.8 -6.9 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -2.8 -3.3 0.3 49.7 53.3 -4.0 -2.7 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -3.1 -3.7 -5.0 0.4 48.2 53.2 -4.8 -3.6 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.9 -1.8 0.3 49.2 54.0 -4.2 -2.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -11.3 -8.9 -4.4 0.3 51.9 53.5 -11.1 -9.1 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -2.9 -2.6 0.4 50.1 53.3 -4.0 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -2.7 -3.8 0.4 52.0 53.4 -3.9 -2.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.2 -3.5 0.2 50.7 52.7 -4.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -3.1 -3.6 -3.8 0.2 51.6 53.2 -5.0 -3.6 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -2.1 -4.1 0.3 52.7 53.6 -3.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -3.9 -2.5 -2.9 0.2 48.1 53.2 -3.8 -2.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 -4.1 -3.1 -3.6 0.0 42.4 51.2 -3.5 -2.0 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.0 -3.9 0.3 51.0 53.1 -3.3 -2.0 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 0.2 46.6 53.6 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -6.0 -4.0 -4.4 0.4 52.1 53.4 -5.6 -4.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -2.3 -3.4 -1.8 0.3 47.7 54.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -10.0 -8.2 -5.7 0.5 51.5 54.6 -8.9 -8.3 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -2.2 -3.1 -1.8 0.4 50.4 53.7 -4.2 -3.1 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -3.4 -1.9 0.2 42.9 53.3 -4.5 -2.9 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -4.6 -3.5 -1.9 0.3 46.2 53.9 -4.4 -3.2 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -4.5 -2.9 -3.0 0.3 49.2 53.3 -4.7 -2.9 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.0 -2.8 0.5 50.9 54.6 -3.6 -3.1 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -3.0 -3.8 0.5 51.7 54.4 -3.7 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -3.0 -2.0 0.5 52.0 54.8 -3.8 -3.1 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -4.8 -3.5 -3.7 0.1 46.2 52.2 -5.4 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -7.9 -5.6 -4.9 0.4 51.8 53.5 -7.9 -5.7 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 -1.7 -2.7 -1.6 0.4 49.2 54.4 -4.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------