***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.9 0.1 48.9 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 0.5 -0.9 -1.9 0.4 53.1 57.0 -4.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 3.0 0.4 -2.1 0.2 50.0 56.4 -1.5 0.3 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 -2.6 -4.5 -4.2 0.6 50.4 57.9 -6.5 -4.6 -3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 -0.1 -1.7 -3.7 0.6 51.2 57.9 -4.2 -1.8 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -1.3 -2.9 -4.8 1.4 56.2 62.7 -4.5 -3.1 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 0.6 -0.6 -1.9 0.4 53.6 56.6 -4.3 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -6.0 -7.5 -4.6 0.9 53.2 58.9 -8.8 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 0.9 -0.9 -3.1 0.4 50.2 56.6 -3.7 -0.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 0.2 -0.7 -4.1 0.7 51.9 57.8 -4.1 -1.2 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 -0.3 -1.1 -3.8 0.8 52.1 58.7 -4.5 -1.6 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 -1.2 -2.8 -4.0 0.9 53.2 58.8 -5.1 -3.0 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 -0.8 -1.7 -4.1 1.1 54.6 59.9 -4.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 1.3 -0.8 -3.2 0.3 49.2 56.3 -2.8 -0.8 0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -2.0 -3.9 0.4 47.8 55.8 -3.1 -2.0 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 0.6 -0.7 -4.1 1.0 53.6 59.3 -3.3 -1.0 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 0.4 -0.4 -1.9 0.4 52.7 57.0 -4.6 -0.8 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 -2.3 -3.6 -4.7 0.7 51.0 57.1 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 0.5 -0.9 -1.9 0.4 52.6 57.1 -4.2 -1.0 1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -4.9 -6.5 -5.8 1.0 56.2 58.3 -8.9 -7.4 -5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 0.7 -1.1 -2.5 0.2 49.9 56.0 -3.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 0.3 -1.5 -1.9 0.3 51.9 56.8 -4.6 -1.5 0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 0.1 -1.2 -2.1 0.3 51.8 56.7 -4.0 -1.4 -0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 0.1 -1.8 -3.4 0.4 49.6 56.5 -4.2 -1.8 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 0.1 -1.9 -3.6 0.3 48.2 56.7 -4.2 -1.6 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -2.3 -3.9 1.2 56.1 61.3 -3.6 -2.4 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 0.9 -1.5 -2.7 0.3 48.4 56.4 -5.1 -1.4 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -2.9 -3.8 0.8 50.7 58.0 -5.2 -2.9 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -1.7 -3.4 -5.2 0.7 51.6 57.2 -4.9 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 1.2 -0.7 -1.9 0.3 52.2 56.7 -4.5 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------