***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -4.0 -1.5 31.3 41.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 -6.3 -6.8 -4.8 -2.1 29.0 38.3 -6.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 -3.3 -3.1 -4.3 -1.5 29.4 40.3 -2.8 -1.5 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -9.4 -8.0 -6.3 -0.9 38.1 43.0 -8.7 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -4.8 -4.8 -5.6 -0.6 43.4 46.1 -5.0 -2.7 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -4.2 -4.1 -5.7 0.9 55.8 57.5 -6.7 -4.7 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -5.6 -4.7 -1.9 31.2 39.2 -5.6 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -7.9 -8.4 -6.1 0.0 50.2 50.9 -9.9 -8.5 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -2.7 -4.9 -0.7 43.5 45.9 -4.3 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -3.0 -5.9 -0.4 46.9 48.4 -4.6 -2.7 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -3.7 -5.3 -0.2 46.0 49.0 -4.9 -2.6 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -3.2 -3.8 -5.3 0.1 49.6 51.1 -6.1 -3.8 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.3 -5.2 0.5 52.0 54.8 -5.7 -3.3 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -5.6 -1.4 37.2 42.1 -4.4 -1.6 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -4.6 -3.8 -6.3 -1.3 32.6 40.5 -3.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -3.3 -5.3 0.2 48.9 51.8 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -2.3 27.0 37.2 -5.0 -3.0 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.6 -4.1 -6.7 -0.5 46.7 48.0 -6.1 -4.0 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -5.9 -6.5 -4.8 -2.1 27.4 38.0 -5.6 -2.4 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -8.4 -9.2 -7.5 0.2 53.9 52.2 -10.1 -9.3 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -5.0 -4.6 -4.3 -1.1 35.7 43.8 -4.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 -6.6 -6.9 -5.0 -2.5 23.6 35.3 -5.9 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 -6.2 -5.4 -4.8 -1.9 26.0 38.5 -4.8 -2.6 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -4.9 -4.9 -5.5 -1.1 35.2 43.5 -5.0 -2.5 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -5.6 -4.6 -5.7 -1.2 36.6 42.6 -4.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -3.4 -2.9 -4.7 0.9 58.9 57.8 -5.3 -3.9 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -5.7 -4.9 -4.8 -1.3 35.1 42.8 -5.2 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -6.3 -5.3 -6.0 -0.8 38.4 44.0 -5.6 -4.1 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -5.3 -6.1 -7.0 -0.2 49.4 49.4 -7.6 -6.0 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 -5.2 -5.7 -4.6 -1.9 30.3 38.9 -5.6 -2.7 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------