***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 0.0 1.3 3.3 91.2 85.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 1.8 75.7 71.1 -4.5 -2.1 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 1.4 3.0 1.0 3.1 90.0 84.7 -2.9 -0.9 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 -4.0 -2.1 -2.1 2.7 87.0 78.7 -9.0 -5.2 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 -0.9 0.1 0.0 4.1 91.3 89.8 -3.4 -2.2 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 -1.8 0.4 -1.3 4.7 92.6 91.9 -4.2 -3.3 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 2.1 78.7 74.0 -4.4 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 -4.9 -3.4 -1.0 4.2 92.1 88.7 -9.5 -6.7 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 0.3 1.4 0.4 3.9 91.3 89.3 -2.8 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 -0.5 0.8 -0.5 4.1 92.1 88.9 -4.0 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 4.2 91.3 90.0 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 -0.3 0.7 -0.2 4.4 93.1 90.2 -4.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -1.2 0.4 -0.2 4.6 91.4 89.2 -3.2 -2.6 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 3.0 86.3 82.3 -3.3 -1.1 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -3.2 -1.5 -2.6 1.1 59.6 61.3 -4.6 -3.8 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 -0.2 1.1 -0.5 4.3 91.1 89.4 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -1.6 -1.0 1.2 64.4 64.0 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 -3.0 -0.7 -1.0 4.0 91.1 87.2 -4.8 -3.8 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 -0.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 77.7 73.4 -4.6 -1.6 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 -4.5 -2.7 -2.2 4.2 88.2 85.2 -9.0 -7.7 -5.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 0.0 1.4 1.2 3.7 91.2 88.7 -3.2 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -1.5 -1.1 0.9 61.6 61.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 -1.1 -0.4 0.1 2.2 81.7 77.9 -4.0 -2.3 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 3.5 90.3 86.1 -4.1 -2.4 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 -0.9 0.4 -0.1 3.2 89.7 83.5 -3.6 -2.2 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 -1.0 1.8 -0.2 4.6 93.2 90.3 -3.6 -2.7 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 0.4 1.7 0.7 3.4 91.0 85.1 -3.8 -1.9 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 -1.8 -1.1 -1.9 2.4 77.5 74.2 -5.5 -3.5 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 -2.5 -0.6 -1.6 4.2 89.1 86.0 -7.0 -4.5 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 -0.1 0.7 0.4 2.3 83.0 77.4 -4.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------