***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.3 24.1 33.5 78.3 38.8 39.2 21.7 28.0 35.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.4 18.1 28.6 76.4 39.7 39.4 17.8 26.4 34.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 41.6 29.6 33.5 79.2 39.0 39.8 27.9 37.9 45.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 34.3 35.4 36.6 74.1 35.9 35.2 35.0 42.6 54.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 45.5 35.6 41.2 84.7 43.0 42.1 32.4 41.8 46.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 23.8 29.8 41.7 89.3 43.9 43.4 26.8 34.5 43.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 27.0 20.2 28.2 76.8 39.8 39.2 19.2 21.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 65.4 57.7 46.8 88.6 44.8 44.6 52.4 61.0 71.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 34.6 27.4 42.1 85.1 44.5 42.7 23.3 28.8 35.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 41.2 35.1 46.6 88.2 45.8 44.5 33.2 35.3 42.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.6 28.1 42.0 86.7 43.6 43.2 26.8 31.0 41.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 41.6 30.5 42.3 88.8 44.3 44.3 22.1 35.9 46.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 43.4 35.4 45.4 90.5 45.8 44.5 24.8 37.5 57.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 57.6 51.2 44.3 83.7 42.8 41.6 43.0 54.6 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 16.9 17.0 29.4 63.4 30.0 30.9 17.9 27.2 36.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.3 25.7 42.6 89.0 45.1 43.9 20.3 30.2 35.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 19.5 23.4 26.8 74.1 38.5 37.3 19.9 27.3 36.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 42.4 36.9 49.6 90.0 47.5 45.9 30.1 38.2 47.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 34.4 24.3 29.9 77.3 38.9 39.5 22.2 30.9 38.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 42.6 35.1 59.5 89.9 46.7 46.2 25.8 37.4 51.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 37.8 28.8 38.5 82.6 40.5 40.8 28.2 34.0 40.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.2 25.9 28.5 74.5 37.7 37.2 21.3 30.4 38.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 35.4 28.7 32.8 79.4 39.5 39.9 24.8 32.5 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 50.3 42.7 43.0 85.7 44.1 42.8 39.7 48.1 55.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 40.0 29.3 39.4 79.8 37.3 38.8 28.5 36.5 43.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 39.7 23.9 40.6 82.9 38.8 39.8 15.8 34.3 46.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 34.9 22.5 36.2 79.1 38.1 39.1 21.2 27.9 43.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 18.5 24.2 34.3 73.5 36.3 35.7 21.0 27.5 40.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 68.8 63.5 52.8 90.4 47.7 46.0 44.0 63.9 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.6 22.0 29.6 77.1 39.4 39.7 20.4 23.8 37.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------