***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.9 5.0 8.7 90.6 53.1 44.9 0.4 4.4 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.1 3.4 7.6 87.3 53.8 43.4 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.1 8.8 9.0 93.5 55.6 46.4 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.5 13.2 8.9 84.0 57.7 44.9 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.7 11.9 9.8 90.1 57.1 46.8 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.6 10.1 92.2 59.1 47.2 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.9 7.3 85.7 51.7 42.9 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.7 18.1 10.6 92.8 55.7 47.9 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.9 8.8 10.9 93.2 57.5 47.9 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.1 11.8 11.6 95.8 58.3 49.1 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.9 9.7 90.9 58.7 47.4 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.2 9.5 92.7 58.2 47.7 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.2 10.2 92.3 59.5 47.9 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.2 11.5 11.2 88.9 51.6 45.3 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.8 8.0 80.5 58.9 43.8 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 9.1 9.6 90.9 60.3 47.5 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.7 7.1 81.8 52.0 41.8 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.3 12.4 97.9 59.2 49.8 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.7 7.8 86.8 52.4 43.6 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 8.5 13.1 89.9 53.2 46.3 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.9 10.0 93.4 54.9 47.4 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.8 7.5 78.3 50.6 40.5 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.2 8.3 85.8 51.0 44.1 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.7 11.1 94.9 56.8 48.3 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.0 9.6 88.4 49.8 45.3 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.3 9.1 87.1 57.1 45.7 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.7 9.0 88.0 50.5 43.8 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.5 11.5 8.6 84.0 60.4 45.3 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.1 19.0 12.7 95.0 56.4 48.6 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.4 5.7 7.9 90.1 55.1 44.2 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------