***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.8 1.5 5.6 54.5 41.1 36.5 0.5 4.0 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.2 5.1 58.5 48.5 38.3 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.0 3.4 6.0 61.4 48.0 39.3 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.4 7.1 68.1 46.4 39.1 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.2 7.7 7.9 74.3 46.2 41.6 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.5 8.6 82.9 49.0 42.5 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.3 4.9 56.4 47.6 37.8 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.6 9.7 10.0 83.1 52.0 45.0 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.0 8.6 76.2 47.1 41.9 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.5 10.0 83.6 51.8 44.8 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.5 8.4 80.0 50.4 43.0 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.1 8.8 83.3 51.8 44.2 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.1 9.3 85.0 50.4 44.4 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.1 7.0 9.2 72.9 48.3 41.7 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.8 6.1 60.9 48.4 36.9 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.9 8.5 82.2 49.5 43.0 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.0 5.0 58.8 48.1 37.6 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.7 10.9 85.4 53.9 45.5 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.9 5.5 61.9 49.3 39.4 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 12.8 80.1 51.9 45.7 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.2 7.1 67.0 43.1 39.6 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.0 5.6 63.8 50.5 39.2 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.6 3.9 6.3 66.3 49.8 40.5 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.0 9.1 78.1 51.1 43.4 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.9 6.8 59.9 42.8 37.5 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.3 8.1 74.8 47.6 42.0 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.1 6.2 56.8 42.4 37.4 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.4 3.3 7.1 71.4 49.0 39.3 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.6 11.6 83.7 52.7 45.9 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.9 5.1 56.3 46.9 37.9 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------