***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 11.4 12.5 120.8 68.0 56.2 0.8 4.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 10.1 112.5 64.6 54.6 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.7 12.8 12.0 117.0 67.0 55.6 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.3 14.0 115.3 65.3 54.6 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.3 19.5 15.6 129.1 72.2 59.2 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.0 16.6 16.0 142.6 76.6 60.5 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 8.1 10.2 117.1 66.2 55.9 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 24.2 16.4 126.6 68.9 59.7 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.0 15.6 128.6 70.4 60.1 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 16.6 16.1 127.2 69.1 60.0 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.4 15.5 130.2 71.4 59.2 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.0 13.3 15.4 128.4 70.3 59.6 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 17.7 21.5 17.2 139.4 75.1 61.6 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.1 17.0 15.4 122.4 68.4 58.5 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.0 11.5 103.3 64.8 51.3 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.7 16.4 16.2 138.5 74.6 59.8 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.5 5.7 9.4 109.6 66.2 55.2 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.9 17.0 127.5 68.5 60.3 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.7 8.8 10.4 112.0 64.0 54.6 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 13.7 21.8 130.9 70.8 61.0 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.2 15.9 14.5 127.9 72.0 59.2 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.9 6.2 9.9 110.7 66.4 56.2 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.2 7.6 11.3 112.7 64.9 54.3 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.9 15.9 14.9 121.6 68.7 58.0 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.0 15.1 14.7 122.3 65.8 57.1 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 15.0 15.8 125.6 70.2 59.3 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 10.8 13.5 121.9 66.9 57.0 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.4 13.1 114.9 67.4 53.2 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 19.6 18.5 128.6 69.4 61.0 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 6.9 10.6 115.1 63.6 54.7 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------