***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.8 6.8 53.7 39.0 34.7 2.4 4.8 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.6 5.8 52.7 40.0 34.2 1.8 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.1 6.6 51.8 36.3 34.2 3.7 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.3 2.5 6.6 40.7 29.2 27.3 2.9 6.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.2 7.9 52.5 34.4 32.3 2.2 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 1.7 2.1 6.9 48.8 34.0 29.7 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.7 5.9 53.9 42.7 34.3 1.3 3.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.7 5.1 9.7 59.7 37.3 33.6 4.4 8.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 1.5 2.6 7.0 48.5 32.1 31.1 2.7 4.3 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.0 3.1 8.9 55.0 34.1 32.4 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.4 2.0 8.4 54.7 35.9 32.9 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.8 2.6 8.7 58.3 36.8 33.5 2.2 4.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.3 3.6 8.8 55.4 36.1 32.9 2.9 5.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 4.1 8.9 8.5 56.1 35.5 34.5 8.4 12.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.1 0.1 3.9 25.3 29.3 22.2 0.5 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.1 2.1 8.2 54.3 36.4 32.5 1.4 2.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.5 1.9 5.3 50.9 39.3 33.3 1.3 4.1 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.1 5.5 9.3 56.9 32.6 33.1 5.6 6.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.2 6.1 53.6 39.6 34.7 2.8 5.1 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 5.1 11.8 63.2 37.4 35.0 4.1 5.9 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.4 3.6 6.8 49.2 33.7 32.2 3.6 5.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.0 5.6 50.5 38.8 33.8 2.8 6.3 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.5 6.8 56.8 38.1 35.6 4.0 6.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 4.1 6.7 8.0 54.3 33.7 33.6 6.3 10.7 17.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.5 8.3 54.8 36.4 34.1 3.3 4.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.1 0.9 7.6 50.2 32.9 30.2 0.9 3.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.1 7.5 55.4 38.4 34.8 2.7 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.3 5.5 36.5 30.7 26.1 0.4 2.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 5.9 9.2 10.0 59.8 34.6 34.2 9.1 12.4 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.2 6.0 52.6 40.4 34.4 2.2 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------