***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.1 6.4 1.7 71.4 69.8 2.0 4.9 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.3 7.1 6.7 1.9 72.9 70.8 2.6 3.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.6 6.9 1.8 71.5 69.5 3.5 4.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 1.1 1.8 4.1 2.2 78.6 74.1 -1.4 -0.4 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.8 4.9 1.6 71.4 68.3 3.3 5.1 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.2 7.0 3.4 1.4 71.0 66.7 3.0 4.2 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 6.0 6.8 6.5 1.7 71.7 69.8 2.0 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.5 4.1 1.4 71.0 66.6 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 7.5 8.1 5.8 1.6 71.4 68.5 3.8 5.3 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.3 4.7 1.4 69.6 66.3 3.6 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.7 5.1 1.6 70.2 68.0 3.3 5.2 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.3 4.6 1.5 69.6 67.1 3.9 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.4 4.3 1.4 69.4 66.1 3.6 4.9 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.1 6.3 1.8 73.0 69.2 3.8 6.3 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.5 7.3 5.7 2.6 82.9 77.0 2.9 5.4 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.0 4.4 1.5 69.4 67.4 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.8 6.5 1.8 73.0 70.9 2.3 3.6 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.6 4.6 1.4 69.3 66.0 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.2 7.0 6.9 1.9 72.8 70.5 2.9 3.6 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.5 2.7 1.3 71.3 65.8 1.1 1.4 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.7 6.4 1.6 70.6 68.4 3.5 5.3 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.2 6.7 1.9 73.5 71.0 2.6 4.3 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.9 7.0 1.8 72.8 69.5 2.9 4.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 7.7 8.3 6.1 1.6 70.9 67.9 4.0 5.8 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 6.1 6.8 5.1 1.7 72.4 69.7 2.4 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.6 3.6 1.2 68.2 64.9 3.6 4.9 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.7 5.8 1.5 70.0 68.3 2.9 4.6 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 7.5 8.2 4.8 2.3 78.6 74.0 3.5 6.0 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.5 3.8 3.9 1.3 69.3 65.7 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 6.1 7.0 6.6 1.8 72.7 70.4 2.3 3.4 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------