***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.9 7.4 7.3 1.5 61.8 60.2 2.2 3.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.2 7.6 7.5 1.7 64.4 61.7 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.6 8.7 7.8 1.5 62.3 60.2 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.5 1.3 4.8 1.5 65.0 60.3 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.4 5.7 1.3 61.4 58.7 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.0 4.0 1.0 60.4 56.8 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.6 6.5 7.4 1.6 63.6 61.6 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -1.2 4.8 1.1 60.9 57.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.7 8.6 6.4 1.3 61.8 58.5 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 5.5 1.1 60.9 57.3 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.7 5.5 1.1 60.4 57.5 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.5 5.3 1.1 60.0 57.2 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 4.5 1.1 61.1 57.4 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.2 6.7 6.9 1.5 61.5 59.4 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 7.0 5.7 1.7 63.4 60.8 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.4 4.9 1.1 61.1 57.5 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.9 7.6 7.5 1.6 65.6 61.8 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.8 5.5 1.2 61.0 57.8 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.4 7.7 1.6 64.0 61.4 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.9 3.4 1.1 61.3 57.8 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.9 7.1 1.4 60.5 59.0 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.7 7.6 1.6 65.6 61.7 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.6 8.0 1.5 63.3 60.4 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.6 6.7 1.4 60.7 58.7 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.6 5.7 1.4 62.6 59.7 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.5 4.5 1.2 62.8 58.7 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.9 6.6 1.4 61.8 59.7 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.9 5.1 1.5 63.5 59.6 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.4 4.7 1.2 61.0 57.6 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.9 7.3 7.5 1.6 63.0 61.5 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------