***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 10.1 6.8 1.8 64.3 62.7 2.5 5.4 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.9 7.1 2.1 66.5 64.8 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.8 7.3 1.8 64.2 62.5 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.3 3.4 4.5 2.1 69.8 63.6 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.4 5.2 1.6 62.5 60.6 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.4 3.6 1.2 57.5 58.9 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.6 7.0 2.0 66.7 64.5 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 1.0 0.1 4.4 1.3 61.3 59.9 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.1 5.9 1.5 60.7 59.9 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 10.0 8.9 5.0 1.3 60.0 59.1 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 10.0 8.1 5.1 1.4 60.9 60.0 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 9.5 8.3 4.9 1.4 60.2 60.2 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 9.6 7.6 4.0 1.2 58.4 59.8 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 11.3 10.1 6.5 1.6 65.5 60.8 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 9.3 9.9 5.6 2.5 72.7 66.5 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.6 4.5 1.4 60.0 60.1 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.9 7.1 2.1 66.5 65.3 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.2 5.0 1.3 59.8 59.0 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 9.7 9.8 7.3 2.0 65.2 64.0 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 5.9 4.4 3.0 1.3 58.6 60.0 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.7 6.6 1.6 62.7 60.9 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 9.7 10.0 7.2 2.0 66.5 64.8 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.2 7.4 1.8 63.7 62.4 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.9 9.4 6.3 1.6 63.1 60.4 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.4 5.3 1.8 65.7 62.3 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.6 7.9 4.0 1.3 62.3 60.7 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.9 6.2 1.7 64.5 62.2 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.3 10.4 4.8 2.1 68.7 63.6 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.0 4.3 1.3 59.4 59.2 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.5 7.0 2.0 66.4 64.3 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------