***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 5.5 7.1 6.8 2.8 74.0 70.0 0.4 2.5 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 6.0 7.4 7.0 2.9 75.0 70.7 1.0 2.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 6.7 7.9 7.3 2.9 71.9 69.6 1.9 3.2 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 0.5 1.5 4.3 3.3 76.0 72.8 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 6.8 7.8 5.1 2.5 72.4 68.1 2.1 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 5.7 6.0 3.7 2.3 71.2 66.5 1.7 3.2 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.4 7.4 6.7 2.7 73.9 70.0 0.8 1.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.4 0.2 4.1 2.0 67.6 63.2 -3.4 -1.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 7.2 7.7 6.1 2.5 70.0 67.4 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.7 6.7 4.9 2.2 67.6 64.2 2.6 3.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.4 7.9 5.4 2.5 72.5 67.9 2.3 4.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 7.4 7.0 4.6 2.2 68.8 65.1 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 6.6 7.7 4.7 2.3 71.5 66.1 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 47 53 100 7.6 7.3 6.8 2.7 65.3 67.0 2.5 4.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 5.7 7.4 6.3 3.8 81.7 77.0 2.6 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.9 4.7 2.5 72.0 67.5 2.6 4.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.6 6.7 2.7 72.0 69.7 1.3 2.3 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.8 4.5 2.0 63.1 62.3 2.4 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 6.4 7.8 7.2 2.9 73.8 70.5 0.9 3.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.6 63.0 59.7 0.4 1.4 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 6.8 7.5 6.8 2.6 72.0 68.1 2.4 4.1 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.3 7.0 2.7 70.9 69.7 1.5 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.9 7.4 2.8 70.0 69.6 1.2 3.3 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 6.9 7.0 6.4 2.4 66.7 65.7 2.7 4.4 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.7 6.6 5.5 2.7 73.5 69.5 1.3 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.0 6.6 3.6 1.8 68.8 63.5 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 5.9 7.1 6.0 2.5 72.2 68.2 1.0 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.3 8.5 5.2 3.4 77.7 73.5 3.0 4.6 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.2 2.8 3.8 1.8 62.7 61.1 -0.9 1.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.8 7.4 7.0 2.9 75.4 70.6 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------