***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 3.7 5.3 4.9 0.9 63.1 61.6 0.5 3.2 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 2.4 4.9 5.1 0.9 63.4 63.2 0.7 1.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 4.5 5.0 5.3 0.9 63.2 61.8 0.7 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 2.5 3.3 2.7 2.1 72.3 70.7 -2.6 -1.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 4.9 5.9 3.6 1.1 60.1 61.4 0.9 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 4.2 5.4 2.4 1.1 61.5 60.8 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 2.5 3.6 4.8 0.7 61.6 61.6 0.3 2.0 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -0.3 0.6 3.0 1.2 63.1 62.3 -2.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 5.4 6.6 4.8 1.3 62.2 63.2 1.3 4.9 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 4.7 5.4 3.6 1.1 61.7 61.4 1.4 4.3 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 4.5 6.0 4.3 1.2 62.1 61.9 1.1 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 4.5 6.0 3.5 1.2 62.8 62.2 1.7 3.9 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 4.3 5.6 3.8 0.9 60.6 59.5 2.6 4.0 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 4.2 5.8 5.2 1.3 63.9 63.1 1.3 3.4 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.4 6.2 5.1 2.4 73.9 72.9 0.8 1.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 5.3 7.0 3.5 1.1 61.0 61.1 2.1 5.0 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 2.1 3.5 4.8 1.0 64.2 63.9 0.7 1.4 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 3.2 3.6 3.2 1.1 60.9 61.0 1.0 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 3.0 5.2 5.2 1.0 63.5 62.9 0.1 2.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 3.0 3.4 1.8 1.1 60.0 60.8 -1.2 2.6 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 5.2 5.6 5.1 0.9 60.8 60.7 0.8 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 2.9 5.2 5.1 1.1 64.6 64.0 0.7 2.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 3.2 4.8 5.2 1.0 62.7 61.7 0.4 2.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.1 5.3 4.9 1.1 62.6 61.8 1.1 4.4 5.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 3.9 4.2 3.9 0.9 60.6 60.9 1.2 3.7 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 4.5 4.8 2.3 0.5 55.5 55.3 3.0 4.3 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 4.4 4.7 4.3 0.6 60.2 58.9 0.8 4.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.5 3.9 2.2 72.8 71.2 1.5 3.4 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 2.9 4.8 2.7 1.1 60.4 60.3 -0.6 2.4 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 2.4 4.2 5.0 0.8 62.0 61.9 0.4 1.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------