***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-16.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 -1.7 -1.2 -1.2 1.1 65.8 62.6 -3.7 -2.2 -1.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 -1.2 -1.4 -0.9 1.3 67.4 65.1 -5.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 0.7 0.1 -0.9 1.3 67.5 65.1 -2.8 -0.8 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -4.8 -4.5 -3.3 1.8 72.9 70.8 -8.1 -6.2 -5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 1.3 67.4 65.2 -4.5 -3.1 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 -2.9 -2.9 -5.1 1.6 67.9 68.2 -5.3 -4.5 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 -1.0 -1.4 -1.0 1.2 66.7 64.2 -4.9 -2.1 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -7.8 -7.4 -5.2 1.1 64.8 62.5 -9.2 -8.1 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -1.1 -2.8 1.3 68.5 65.8 -3.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 -1.4 -1.9 -4.5 1.1 65.2 63.4 -3.8 -2.7 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 -1.9 -1.9 -3.8 1.3 65.9 64.7 -4.0 -3.1 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 -2.7 -3.0 -4.4 1.3 66.2 63.7 -5.1 -4.1 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -2.3 -4.6 1.3 65.7 64.1 -4.2 -3.0 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 -0.7 -0.9 -2.8 1.4 68.5 66.3 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 -1.3 -0.9 -1.7 2.0 74.8 73.9 -3.3 -2.5 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 -1.0 -1.3 -4.2 1.5 66.7 66.1 -3.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 1.5 70.0 67.1 -4.6 -2.6 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -3.5 -3.5 -4.9 1.2 67.7 64.0 -5.9 -4.2 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 -1.2 -1.4 -1.0 1.2 66.9 64.9 -4.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -8.0 -6.4 -6.4 0.8 62.3 59.4 -9.3 -8.6 -6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 1.3 67.5 65.3 -4.1 -2.5 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 1.5 69.3 66.7 -4.5 -3.0 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 -1.6 -1.8 -1.3 1.2 64.8 64.1 -4.3 -2.8 -1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 -1.5 -1.6 -3.0 1.4 68.5 66.5 -4.0 -2.6 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -1.5 -2.2 1.2 65.5 64.0 -4.3 -3.0 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 -2.8 -2.5 -5.0 1.0 61.2 60.5 -4.3 -3.1 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -1.7 -1.6 1.0 64.6 61.6 -4.4 -2.6 -1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -2.2 -1.9 -2.9 1.9 74.1 72.2 -4.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -5.0 -5.0 -5.8 0.8 63.7 60.3 -6.4 -5.5 -4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 -1.9 -1.4 -1.0 1.2 66.3 64.2 -4.6 -2.4 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------