***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 52.2 127.8 71.1 64.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 37.6 42.2 48.4 130.1 75.9 67.6 17.8 26.4 34.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 48.1 50.8 51.4 124.6 72.4 64.2 27.9 37.9 45.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 55.0 58.1 59.1 129.0 71.6 67.5 35.0 42.6 54.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 51.3 52.6 55.9 124.1 75.3 65.2 32.4 41.8 46.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 44.7 50.5 57.7 128.9 76.5 67.9 26.8 34.5 43.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 37.8 44.9 49.0 133.7 78.3 69.1 19.2 21.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 73.3 77.2 61.3 125.4 75.8 66.9 52.4 61.0 71.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 44.5 44.5 55.2 120.3 74.1 63.6 23.3 28.8 35.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 52.6 51.3 59.5 121.5 74.3 64.9 33.2 35.3 42.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 47.1 50.3 53.2 124.4 74.5 65.7 26.8 31.0 41.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 51.5 56.3 54.5 127.2 75.1 67.1 22.1 35.9 46.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 52.7 59.9 56.1 127.1 73.7 67.7 24.8 37.5 57.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 64.1 67.3 59.2 117.3 70.1 63.2 43.0 54.6 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 50.6 63.6 61.6 135.7 75.1 70.1 17.9 27.2 36.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 47.2 53.7 53.5 127.0 74.7 67.5 20.3 30.2 35.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 36.8 41.1 47.6 133.7 78.4 69.7 19.9 27.3 36.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 50.6 51.9 65.5 120.5 72.9 64.8 30.1 38.2 47.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 40.5 45.4 48.6 125.7 72.6 65.5 22.2 30.9 38.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 53.2 58.8 83.2 126.4 73.5 68.2 25.8 37.4 51.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 43.8 44.9 53.2 122.0 73.8 63.4 28.2 34.0 40.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 37.4 41.1 48.6 128.0 75.2 67.5 21.3 30.4 38.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 40.5 42.2 50.1 119.9 68.1 62.6 24.8 32.5 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 54.3 56.9 58.6 119.7 71.0 63.7 39.7 48.1 55.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 44.6 44.4 58.3 123.9 69.1 64.2 28.5 36.5 43.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 48.2 58.1 60.1 135.5 78.8 71.0 15.8 34.3 46.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 44.3 45.5 55.7 125.4 69.3 64.5 21.2 27.9 43.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 47.9 60.1 58.3 132.5 74.3 69.0 21.0 27.5 40.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 78.2 86.8 70.7 119.8 72.5 64.6 44.0 63.9 76.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 36.0 42.6 49.6 129.5 75.0 66.7 20.4 23.8 37.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------