***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.8 97.3 56.9 46.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.3 9.4 8.1 93.5 61.6 48.7 1.4 2.8 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.0 9.7 8.9 97.9 59.5 47.6 1.2 4.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.7 12.3 8.8 85.3 53.5 45.1 5.1 10.8 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.8 8.8 9.1 91.6 54.4 45.4 2.9 5.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.1 9.1 86.5 51.0 46.1 3.1 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.5 5.0 8.2 97.3 62.0 49.2 0.8 3.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.9 19.9 10.6 99.5 57.0 49.8 8.2 15.3 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.8 9.7 97.2 57.5 46.6 2.5 8.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.3 10.6 98.3 57.8 48.8 4.8 7.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.6 8.7 92.9 57.7 47.4 2.2 6.4 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.8 9.2 100.9 59.6 50.4 2.7 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.7 9.2 94.5 56.6 47.4 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.0 15.4 10.8 93.9 58.6 48.0 5.6 11.3 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.5 8.1 80.2 55.3 45.8 1.7 6.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.5 8.1 8.6 92.8 57.6 47.7 1.7 5.1 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.2 8.6 8.3 99.6 63.7 50.3 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.3 12.4 104.0 61.5 50.4 5.1 9.1 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.6 8.7 8.1 91.9 60.8 48.0 1.6 3.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.5 14.4 100.9 59.3 50.1 4.3 8.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.1 9.2 95.5 55.7 45.1 1.2 7.0 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.9 10.9 8.5 95.3 60.0 49.2 4.2 6.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.2 8.6 91.3 59.3 47.6 1.8 5.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.5 15.7 11.0 101.7 61.0 49.5 4.1 7.0 16.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.7 9.6 92.2 54.9 45.6 1.3 5.2 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.2 6.0 9.5 100.1 59.1 48.4 2.1 4.1 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.9 6.2 9.5 96.4 57.7 46.8 0.9 4.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.0 8.4 83.7 54.8 46.1 1.8 5.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.4 20.9 13.2 101.7 60.9 49.7 9.7 16.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.7 7.1 8.2 94.8 59.9 48.1 1.6 3.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------