***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 106.5 59.9 53.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.6 10.3 114.6 66.1 56.7 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.1 9.9 98.3 55.3 51.2 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.1 10.4 12.2 113.4 66.4 53.6 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.7 11.1 100.8 58.2 51.0 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.4 13.8 122.1 68.0 53.8 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 7.1 10.4 117.9 69.6 57.3 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 11.7 12.2 96.6 56.9 50.1 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.8 10.7 92.8 52.6 49.0 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.2 11.7 93.9 54.7 48.9 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.8 9.2 10.7 98.6 58.1 50.4 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.2 6.0 10.9 97.2 58.5 50.3 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.7 12.4 108.3 61.6 52.6 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.1 11.6 91.6 52.3 47.9 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.7 8.0 12.5 116.1 65.7 54.1 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.5 10.0 11.6 108.4 63.7 52.3 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.2 11.3 10.6 124.6 73.1 60.0 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.6 5.4 13.1 93.3 51.6 48.5 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 8.4 10.1 107.5 62.3 54.5 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.2 17.1 100.9 56.2 52.0 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.8 10.3 96.1 54.6 50.6 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.2 7.0 11.0 118.9 68.0 57.9 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.0 9.9 97.6 55.9 51.0 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.5 5.0 11.2 91.0 51.3 47.6 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.6 12.3 109.7 62.3 53.4 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.9 7.0 13.1 112.9 64.2 52.4 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.9 11.8 110.0 63.1 54.6 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.7 7.9 12.3 117.3 67.2 53.9 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.1 14.4 94.3 51.8 48.9 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.6 10.2 109.7 62.2 55.3 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------