***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 15.7 147.8 73.9 62.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.5 10.3 14.5 155.0 78.2 64.9 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.0 18.9 16.2 151.0 76.9 64.0 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.5 20.7 19.0 164.2 76.5 69.6 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 16.9 21.3 18.3 157.8 76.8 68.7 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.2 16.8 19.8 167.5 77.3 72.3 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.6 11.4 14.1 153.7 77.7 64.6 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 22.1 28.8 20.1 159.7 76.3 70.6 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 12.5 16.3 17.7 147.6 76.8 65.7 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 14.0 17.2 19.2 152.3 75.0 68.2 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.3 17.7 160.7 75.8 70.3 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.8 16.4 18.6 165.9 78.2 72.1 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 17.6 22.1 18.9 163.5 76.7 71.7 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.8 19.2 18.5 146.5 72.1 64.5 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 11.7 17.5 19.7 168.7 79.1 70.6 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.7 17.1 18.0 162.5 76.7 71.3 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.2 8.6 12.9 148.2 75.9 64.7 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 12.4 13.0 20.4 146.6 74.3 66.8 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.5 10.7 14.9 152.1 76.6 64.1 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 8.2 14.8 24.9 151.5 75.8 68.1 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.5 17.1 16.5 145.0 73.9 62.9 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.8 7.5 13.6 144.1 74.3 64.6 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.1 11.2 15.6 147.8 73.7 63.3 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.6 18.1 18.4 147.6 75.5 65.5 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.3 16.6 17.1 138.9 68.4 62.9 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.3 16.6 20.6 170.7 78.7 74.0 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.1 11.0 16.2 139.3 70.4 61.4 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.9 15.5 19.4 171.6 78.5 71.6 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 16.9 26.2 21.9 146.3 75.4 66.4 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.5 10.4 15.2 156.1 79.3 64.8 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------