***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 17.1 152.1 78.0 69.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 10.1 13.7 15.6 151.9 77.2 66.6 1.8 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.3 15.7 16.5 144.3 76.1 66.5 3.7 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.1 14.0 19.1 145.2 74.9 67.7 2.9 6.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 11.9 11.9 17.4 139.5 72.2 65.1 2.2 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.1 13.2 15.0 134.8 75.0 65.7 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 9.7 12.8 16.3 159.7 78.2 69.6 1.3 3.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 17.0 15.4 18.3 141.5 73.7 67.2 4.4 8.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.0 10.1 17.1 137.8 72.3 64.4 2.7 4.3 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.1 11.3 18.0 137.5 73.4 65.1 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 10.8 9.9 16.1 139.7 72.2 66.0 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.3 13.2 15.7 140.1 73.7 67.2 2.2 4.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 9.4 11.5 15.5 137.3 77.9 67.8 2.9 5.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.0 20.6 18.3 133.8 75.0 63.4 8.4 12.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 12.6 22.1 21.4 165.7 83.4 74.0 0.5 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.2 8.3 15.4 138.0 75.2 67.0 1.4 2.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 9.3 13.3 15.7 157.1 78.9 69.8 1.3 4.1 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.2 9.3 19.6 135.2 72.7 64.1 5.6 6.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 10.4 11.8 15.5 145.4 74.2 65.2 2.8 5.1 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 10.8 12.7 26.7 147.6 77.7 70.5 4.1 5.9 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 11.4 13.5 17.2 144.5 75.2 66.4 3.6 5.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.2 12.2 15.6 149.4 74.6 67.7 2.8 6.3 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 10.8 10.6 16.0 136.9 71.3 63.7 4.0 6.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.8 19.3 18.0 134.5 73.7 63.4 6.3 10.7 17.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 8.9 11.9 19.4 147.3 73.6 67.7 3.3 4.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.1 10.5 17.0 150.7 78.1 71.3 0.9 3.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 10.4 12.7 18.3 149.0 75.7 68.3 2.7 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 8.5 14.0 18.3 149.3 79.1 69.4 0.4 2.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.3 21.1 134.5 72.7 64.6 9.1 12.4 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.0 14.4 16.0 151.1 76.5 67.1 2.2 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------