***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 2.2 78.0 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 7.4 9.7 7.8 2.2 76.1 66.9 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 8.3 11.3 8.0 2.2 77.5 65.7 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.4 4.2 5.7 2.1 73.5 65.3 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.6 10.0 6.3 2.1 72.5 65.1 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.0 9.1 5.0 2.0 71.7 63.6 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 7.0 9.0 7.6 2.2 75.4 67.0 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -0.8 5.1 1.7 67.2 63.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.6 10.5 7.0 2.2 73.4 65.2 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 9.8 6.0 1.9 69.0 63.7 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.4 10.7 6.1 2.0 70.3 64.2 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 9.1 5.7 1.8 68.2 63.5 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.2 5.4 1.9 71.5 63.5 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.9 9.6 7.2 2.0 71.0 63.9 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.4 5.8 2.0 70.2 65.1 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.9 10.6 5.7 2.0 70.5 64.0 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.8 8.3 7.5 2.2 74.4 67.3 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.1 8.0 5.6 1.8 67.3 62.5 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 7.6 9.2 8.0 2.3 76.0 66.6 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.2 4.0 3.3 1.4 64.8 60.6 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.3 11.0 7.6 2.2 76.7 65.4 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 7.5 8.9 7.7 2.2 72.7 66.7 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 7.7 8.7 8.0 2.2 74.8 66.0 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.6 9.4 7.0 2.0 71.1 64.0 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 7.6 9.2 6.3 2.1 75.7 65.4 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.4 5.1 1.8 68.9 63.0 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 8.4 10.8 7.0 2.2 76.9 65.7 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.4 5.9 2.1 71.6 64.8 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.3 3.9 4.7 1.6 66.1 61.6 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 7.3 9.1 7.9 2.2 76.2 66.5 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------