***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 1.4 63.9 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 9.4 10.3 6.4 1.6 68.3 64.7 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 10.5 9.7 6.7 1.5 63.4 63.9 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.5 2.9 4.0 1.1 61.2 61.7 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.4 4.8 1.2 62.6 61.9 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.5 3.5 0.7 58.9 57.0 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.6 6.2 1.6 68.3 64.8 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.3 0.2 4.0 1.0 61.8 60.3 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.4 9.4 5.7 1.3 62.6 62.1 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.2 4.8 1.2 63.1 61.1 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 9.7 9.0 4.7 1.2 64.5 61.7 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.3 4.5 1.1 60.8 60.2 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.7 4.0 0.9 58.7 58.5 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 10.9 10.1 6.0 1.4 62.7 62.3 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.6 4.1 1.1 61.4 61.4 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 9.7 8.8 4.2 1.0 61.7 59.9 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.4 6.1 1.6 68.8 64.7 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.4 4.6 1.1 61.4 60.3 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.9 10.0 6.6 1.7 67.4 64.6 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.4 2.5 0.8 60.0 58.3 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 10.1 8.8 6.1 1.4 63.2 62.7 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.7 10.7 6.3 1.6 68.2 64.3 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.4 6.8 1.6 65.5 64.2 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.8 9.4 5.9 1.4 62.8 62.3 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.9 4.7 1.2 62.7 61.9 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.3 3.8 0.8 56.7 57.7 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.8 5.6 1.3 64.1 62.5 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.2 4.2 1.1 62.1 61.1 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.0 3.7 1.0 61.3 59.7 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.6 6.5 1.6 67.0 64.4 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------