***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 9.1 5.0 96.2 93.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.5 10.7 8.9 4.9 97.2 94.2 0.7 1.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.3 11.8 9.5 5.0 96.8 93.0 0.7 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 3.8 5.8 5.9 4.7 92.2 90.9 -2.6 -1.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.0 10.9 8.0 5.3 95.7 92.5 0.9 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 6.7 10.4 7.0 5.0 93.6 91.3 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.9 9.6 8.7 4.9 97.0 94.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 2.0 3.2 6.9 4.5 92.0 90.3 -2.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 8.9 12.2 9.1 5.3 95.7 92.4 1.3 4.9 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 7.4 11.1 8.0 4.9 93.6 90.8 1.4 4.3 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.0 11.1 8.3 5.4 93.2 91.7 1.1 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 8.5 10.1 7.6 4.9 90.4 90.6 1.7 3.9 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.3 8.0 4.9 90.7 90.1 2.6 4.0 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 9.5 11.6 8.9 4.4 89.2 86.8 1.3 3.4 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 6.6 11.4 6.5 4.3 92.6 90.2 0.8 1.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.6 11.3 8.0 5.3 93.0 91.5 2.1 5.0 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.1 8.8 8.3 4.7 96.6 94.1 0.7 1.4 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 5.2 7.1 7.4 4.3 90.4 87.3 1.0 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.1 9.1 4.8 97.2 93.9 0.1 2.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 5.3 6.9 5.1 3.5 87.6 84.3 -1.2 2.6 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.1 11.6 9.3 5.2 95.6 92.5 0.8 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.3 10.0 8.5 4.6 96.2 93.7 0.7 2.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 6.2 10.6 9.2 4.7 95.6 92.7 0.4 2.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 9.8 10.7 8.8 4.6 91.9 88.9 1.1 4.4 5.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.1 9.5 7.6 4.8 95.0 92.5 1.2 3.7 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.0 9.2 6.8 4.5 91.3 90.4 3.0 4.3 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.4 8.5 4.9 95.2 92.9 0.8 4.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 7.3 11.8 6.6 4.7 91.4 89.9 1.5 3.4 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 5.7 7.6 6.5 4.0 90.2 85.6 -0.6 2.4 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.2 10.2 9.1 4.9 97.2 93.9 0.4 1.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------