***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.5 1.5 66.0 65.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 0.5 0.6 -0.8 1.6 67.9 65.6 -5.4 -1.1 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 2.9 2.2 -0.9 1.5 63.8 65.6 -1.9 0.2 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 -2.8 -4.2 -3.8 1.5 55.4 64.0 -7.6 -4.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -2.3 -3.4 1.4 55.0 62.5 -4.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -3.2 -3.6 -5.3 1.0 53.1 57.4 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 0.7 0.6 -0.6 1.7 70.0 66.2 -4.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -7.5 -7.2 -4.6 1.4 54.3 59.7 -9.5 -7.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -0.6 -2.5 1.4 55.6 61.6 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -1.3 -4.0 1.4 54.7 59.9 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -1.7 -3.5 1.4 54.3 62.0 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -3.0 -3.1 -3.8 1.6 53.2 61.6 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.2 1.3 51.7 60.4 -4.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -0.4 -2.7 1.3 53.4 61.2 -3.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.4 -1.2 -3.3 1.5 54.9 64.9 -3.5 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -0.9 -1.1 -4.0 1.4 51.7 61.5 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 0.5 0.4 -0.7 1.6 67.2 64.4 -5.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -3.5 -3.6 -4.8 1.2 52.3 58.0 -6.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 0.6 0.5 -0.9 1.5 65.4 65.7 -4.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -6.9 -7.4 -6.4 0.8 51.3 55.5 -9.9 -7.5 -6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 0.4 -0.7 -1.5 1.4 59.4 63.3 -4.5 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 0.5 0.5 -1.0 1.4 63.1 63.3 -5.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.4 -1.3 1.5 62.2 65.9 -4.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.0 -2.9 1.3 54.3 61.4 -4.6 -2.3 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 -0.4 -0.8 -2.6 1.6 62.3 65.3 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.8 -3.8 1.2 50.5 58.8 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 0.5 -0.2 -1.4 1.6 65.8 65.6 -5.1 -1.8 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -2.3 -3.6 1.4 53.2 63.3 -5.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -3.4 -3.8 -5.5 1.0 53.2 57.1 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 1.2 0.8 -0.7 1.6 68.0 66.0 -5.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------