***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 74.8 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 2.0 69.8 68.3 -6.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 0.5 1.0 -0.5 2.0 74.0 69.7 -3.3 -1.2 0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 -4.8 -4.6 -2.8 2.6 74.9 72.5 -9.0 -6.4 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 -0.9 -0.4 -2.5 2.4 72.8 71.4 -5.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -2.6 -1.9 -3.6 2.6 73.4 71.9 -7.3 -4.8 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 2.1 70.8 69.6 -5.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -7.0 -6.4 -3.4 2.4 72.0 70.3 -10.1 -8.7 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.9 2.2 70.2 69.0 -4.5 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 -1.3 -0.7 -3.0 2.4 71.7 69.6 -4.9 -2.8 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 -1.3 -0.6 -2.6 2.4 74.8 71.1 -5.2 -3.2 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -2.1 -1.5 -2.6 2.6 75.7 71.8 -6.3 -3.9 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 -1.3 -0.5 -2.8 2.6 75.4 72.7 -5.8 -3.5 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 -0.4 -0.6 -2.2 1.9 67.6 66.8 -4.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 -0.4 0.2 -2.2 2.4 74.0 71.1 -4.2 -2.4 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 -0.4 0.2 -2.9 2.5 75.0 71.9 -5.3 -2.8 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 1.7 67.4 65.5 -5.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -2.7 -2.4 -3.6 2.5 71.3 70.1 -6.4 -3.8 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 1.9 70.1 68.3 -5.7 -2.4 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -6.5 -6.2 -5.0 2.3 68.6 68.9 -10.9 -8.2 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 2.1 71.8 69.3 -4.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -1.2 -0.9 1.6 65.7 64.8 -5.8 -2.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 1.8 69.7 68.7 -5.2 -2.2 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.1 2.2 71.6 69.2 -5.0 -2.4 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 -0.6 -0.2 -1.6 2.6 76.9 73.4 -4.8 -2.2 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 -2.1 -1.5 -2.4 2.6 78.2 72.9 -5.2 -3.7 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 -0.6 0.1 -0.7 2.4 75.7 72.3 -5.7 -3.2 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.7 2.4 70.7 70.9 -6.3 -4.1 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 -3.9 -3.6 -4.1 2.6 71.3 70.3 -8.1 -5.5 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 2.0 71.3 69.7 -5.7 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------