***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 4.1 5.4 99.1 96.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 -0.3 2.7 3.6 5.1 97.0 96.7 -4.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 1.6 5.5 3.8 5.1 99.3 97.8 -2.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.7 -0.2 0.8 5.3 96.9 96.5 -8.8 -5.5 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -1.1 3.8 1.9 5.4 98.1 97.3 -3.5 -2.3 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.9 3.6 -0.5 4.8 99.6 98.8 -4.1 -3.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.5 3.8 5.4 98.2 97.2 -4.2 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -5.1 -1.3 0.7 5.3 97.9 97.3 -8.8 -6.0 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.7 4.6 2.4 5.0 98.4 97.9 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.6 3.8 1.3 5.2 97.9 97.2 -3.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 -0.8 4.3 1.4 5.2 97.8 97.4 -3.6 -2.2 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -0.5 3.8 1.2 5.3 98.0 97.7 -3.7 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.7 4.5 0.7 5.0 98.0 97.3 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.8 2.2 4.7 97.2 96.5 -3.4 -1.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.4 2.3 1.6 4.9 96.4 96.3 -4.2 -3.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 -0.2 4.7 0.8 5.1 98.0 97.6 -3.0 -1.9 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.0 3.2 5.0 96.8 96.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.9 0.8 0.6 5.0 97.0 96.0 -4.7 -3.7 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 -0.3 2.3 3.4 4.9 97.7 97.0 -4.9 -2.2 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -4.2 0.7 -0.5 5.4 96.7 95.5 -8.9 -6.5 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 -0.2 4.7 3.4 5.1 98.3 97.6 -3.9 -2.0 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.7 3.2 4.8 97.3 96.4 -5.1 -2.8 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.6 2.7 3.1 4.7 98.5 97.3 -4.3 -2.8 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.7 3.0 2.0 4.7 97.6 96.4 -3.7 -2.9 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 -0.8 3.9 2.7 5.4 98.4 97.7 -3.3 -2.0 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -1.1 3.6 0.8 4.9 97.5 96.5 -3.7 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 -0.4 4.2 3.5 5.5 98.9 97.4 -3.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.2 1.7 1.1 5.0 96.7 96.3 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -2.1 1.4 0.1 5.3 97.0 96.0 -6.3 -4.7 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.2 3.0 3.8 5.2 98.6 97.1 -4.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------