***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.7 34.9 43.3 113.5 68.4 59.3 17.4 24.6 32.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 33.2 39.5 40.5 114.1 68.8 58.4 17.6 29.1 38.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 38.7 52.3 43.5 111.2 64.4 58.5 24.0 33.6 52.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 63.5 60.7 53.4 122.5 70.6 63.1 34.1 47.4 53.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.5 46.1 50.0 114.7 65.2 59.6 30.9 41.1 46.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 38.5 48.0 51.5 120.2 70.7 61.1 26.7 34.8 43.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 35.2 36.8 39.8 114.2 68.5 58.9 19.2 24.8 36.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 66.9 69.4 52.5 108.5 61.8 55.8 40.5 62.3 70.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 36.2 33.9 48.7 110.2 60.6 57.6 23.1 30.0 35.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 41.6 38.3 51.3 107.1 58.6 55.8 32.2 34.6 46.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.3 41.3 47.6 111.8 62.7 57.3 25.7 31.8 45.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 41.3 42.4 47.7 111.4 62.0 56.8 22.1 36.2 44.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 41.3 56.3 50.4 118.4 65.3 60.9 25.2 37.0 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 55.9 63.6 50.3 103.5 58.1 54.2 39.7 52.2 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 55.1 69.3 56.6 133.9 78.9 66.1 16.8 30.3 43.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 34.9 34.8 48.3 115.8 62.0 58.8 19.5 30.1 35.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 16.4 38.1 38.9 113.3 69.2 57.6 18.2 25.1 37.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 41.6 38.0 54.1 103.2 54.6 54.5 27.3 37.0 48.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 35.7 38.7 41.5 112.4 66.6 58.1 21.8 30.6 37.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 43.1 50.0 68.0 109.5 62.5 58.7 26.1 37.4 53.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 35.5 40.7 46.3 112.2 63.0 59.3 24.7 31.2 43.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 18.9 37.5 40.5 111.0 66.7 56.9 20.3 29.7 37.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 35.9 40.7 43.7 109.2 64.6 57.5 22.0 32.9 41.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 46.4 51.0 49.0 103.9 55.9 54.8 39.8 43.4 54.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 49.7 44.7 50.8 116.7 70.5 61.3 28.0 33.8 43.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 38.1 47.7 51.8 123.6 69.0 62.4 15.8 34.9 46.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 47.0 45.3 47.0 113.7 69.0 59.6 20.6 26.6 43.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 37.2 56.8 53.1 124.1 72.1 62.2 21.2 29.7 46.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 68.6 66.3 57.2 101.4 56.6 53.3 41.5 63.5 72.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 36.7 36.2 41.3 114.0 67.6 59.0 18.9 24.2 36.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------