***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.0 8.3 108.2 65.5 53.5 1.5 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 9.4 8.8 121.5 68.2 55.3 0.5 3.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.3 7.8 8.7 104.7 61.3 52.9 1.9 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.5 19.3 10.1 114.0 68.4 53.2 4.7 11.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.0 15.8 9.3 96.0 59.9 48.3 3.1 8.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.8 9.9 100.7 59.9 50.1 5.4 6.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 8.8 8.5 124.3 67.6 55.6 1.6 4.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.1 18.7 9.8 87.8 55.4 46.2 9.0 17.5 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.0 9.7 8.9 86.9 53.0 45.6 3.3 8.6 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.2 12.0 9.5 85.3 51.7 45.2 6.2 9.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.6 8.8 90.0 58.1 47.0 4.6 8.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.8 9.0 92.3 60.5 47.5 4.3 8.9 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.6 9.8 102.4 63.7 50.3 4.1 8.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.1 10.8 100.7 57.5 51.4 4.2 12.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.2 10.4 125.4 72.4 55.7 1.9 5.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.1 9.2 98.6 62.2 49.5 2.9 10.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.9 11.1 8.3 125.8 68.9 55.2 0.7 5.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.2 10.4 86.9 52.3 46.0 4.6 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.4 9.0 116.5 65.8 54.8 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 10.2 12.7 92.8 57.9 48.7 5.0 9.6 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.4 8.6 94.6 55.0 48.9 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.1 11.2 8.8 123.4 67.0 54.9 1.5 6.4 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.4 9.5 109.8 62.4 54.0 1.6 5.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 7.9 9.8 93.2 53.7 48.7 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.9 20.7 9.8 113.2 66.6 54.1 1.5 6.2 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.0 9.8 107.3 66.4 50.7 3.0 7.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.7 9.3 114.2 66.1 55.0 2.3 4.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.6 18.4 10.1 114.2 68.6 53.3 1.4 8.6 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.5 19.7 11.3 89.3 53.6 47.3 10.3 17.3 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.0 8.7 117.8 68.7 55.3 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------