***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.2 6.2 10.8 108.9 65.6 52.9 0.2 2.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.1 4.0 9.1 98.8 57.4 49.3 0.8 2.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 4.2 6.9 10.9 110.8 66.6 54.1 0.4 2.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.3 12.3 111.9 61.5 53.4 3.2 8.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.5 11.2 12.9 119.5 66.8 55.1 1.8 6.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.5 13.4 127.8 70.8 54.9 1.3 6.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.0 8.8 93.8 56.2 48.0 0.9 2.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.5 11.2 13.6 116.3 67.5 54.7 5.2 8.6 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.8 6.9 13.3 120.3 69.5 55.2 1.2 3.8 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.1 13.7 116.0 67.1 54.9 2.6 4.4 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.7 12.6 124.5 69.8 55.7 1.7 5.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.7 6.9 12.6 124.5 71.5 55.3 2.3 3.8 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.1 13.2 128.4 70.8 55.2 1.4 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 1.9 7.0 12.0 100.3 61.8 51.1 1.6 4.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.7 5.7 11.5 107.0 62.3 53.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.3 9.3 12.4 124.3 68.9 54.8 1.8 4.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.3 3.6 8.4 89.4 54.2 45.9 1.4 3.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.5 5.8 13.9 104.0 64.2 53.1 1.3 3.1 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.2 5.0 9.5 102.7 60.1 50.5 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.2 15.9 98.5 59.8 51.9 2.6 4.7 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.9 12.2 118.0 68.1 55.5 0.5 3.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.2 4.0 8.8 90.4 55.2 46.5 1.2 2.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.7 10.2 105.0 61.3 51.5 0.2 2.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.3 8.4 12.4 104.8 65.3 53.1 2.0 4.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.3 12.3 108.3 62.2 52.8 1.2 4.3 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.9 13.0 128.2 71.8 54.3 1.7 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.1 11.5 105.0 62.8 51.8 0.7 3.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.7 6.2 11.9 111.6 63.3 53.0 0.6 3.3 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.0 14.1 97.0 60.4 51.3 3.2 7.9 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.6 4.5 9.6 102.9 60.8 51.0 0.6 2.4 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------