***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.9 12.6 10.6 111.8 64.1 56.1 1.2 6.2 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.0 9.9 114.3 65.9 55.6 1.1 6.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.9 10.8 110.2 65.9 56.1 2.7 6.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.3 12.9 121.7 73.1 58.2 4.9 9.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.2 15.6 12.8 125.1 71.9 58.9 5.6 10.1 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.2 13.3 119.1 67.5 58.5 3.6 8.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.3 9.9 118.8 65.4 56.1 1.6 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 18.8 13.6 118.2 65.4 55.6 9.4 12.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.7 12.8 123.2 70.9 58.2 2.2 7.2 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.7 13.8 121.9 68.6 57.3 5.7 9.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.8 12.3 124.2 69.7 57.2 4.3 7.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.0 11.9 116.1 64.4 55.3 2.4 5.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.8 17.1 12.7 120.2 67.5 58.3 4.1 8.3 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.4 12.6 103.8 64.1 53.1 3.6 6.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.6 12.3 111.4 68.5 55.5 0.9 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.4 13.9 12.3 122.6 69.7 57.7 4.1 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.3 9.5 120.0 71.2 56.4 1.2 5.1 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.6 14.9 119.0 67.6 57.2 5.3 6.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.5 10.0 109.4 65.3 55.2 1.3 6.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.6 17.7 117.6 64.9 56.6 3.8 6.4 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.8 15.8 11.9 119.7 70.6 58.8 3.4 6.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.7 9.6 109.7 66.7 55.1 1.0 5.9 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.7 9.8 10.7 104.9 65.5 55.2 1.2 4.4 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.3 14.0 12.9 112.7 67.5 55.9 4.9 8.6 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 17.3 12.9 121.1 68.9 58.9 4.0 8.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.0 13.3 12.2 115.6 67.4 57.3 4.2 8.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.0 11.8 115.1 63.7 57.1 2.7 8.4 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.0 12.0 12.7 119.2 71.2 56.9 1.4 4.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 18.9 15.8 115.9 66.5 56.2 7.7 13.9 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.0 10.1 111.2 63.8 55.3 1.3 4.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------