***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 5.9 7.1 13.5 123.1 67.3 63.0 1.7 4.7 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.2 8.6 12.8 122.6 68.0 63.5 1.3 3.8 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 7.4 11.9 13.2 117.2 64.4 61.3 3.8 6.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.4 14.2 18.0 138.1 71.7 68.7 4.0 8.8 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.6 9.1 15.0 116.7 67.0 62.3 2.4 5.9 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.4 13.9 14.9 131.4 77.3 69.1 2.2 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 8.0 7.9 12.6 122.8 70.8 64.3 1.6 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.8 15.2 15.5 110.8 66.7 60.6 5.4 7.0 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.9 8.0 13.8 109.5 65.3 58.6 2.7 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.2 14.3 105.3 62.1 57.6 3.9 7.3 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.9 13.8 109.1 67.4 59.8 2.2 4.7 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.6 11.2 14.2 111.9 68.0 61.9 1.7 3.8 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 9.6 10.9 14.8 121.0 71.2 66.2 2.4 6.1 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 11.3 13.6 14.9 108.4 62.5 58.7 7.6 9.8 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 15.9 23.5 22.4 184.1 86.6 77.7 0.5 9.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 9.1 7.6 14.3 116.7 69.1 64.0 2.1 3.5 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.9 5.8 12.6 122.2 69.5 64.2 0.8 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.8 8.0 14.8 102.2 58.5 56.2 4.3 6.9 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.0 10.0 13.0 120.6 65.9 62.1 2.8 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 11.6 12.5 21.8 125.9 67.0 65.0 3.2 5.8 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.5 10.0 13.6 114.5 64.9 60.4 3.3 5.1 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 8.4 9.7 13.2 122.7 70.0 63.5 1.3 3.7 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.2 9.1 13.4 116.2 64.7 60.6 3.8 6.1 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.9 13.9 104.0 59.3 56.4 7.1 10.5 14.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 5.7 9.0 15.8 123.0 64.2 63.2 3.4 4.6 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 10.5 10.8 16.8 139.0 75.1 71.6 1.0 3.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 4.7 7.9 14.5 120.4 65.8 62.3 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.7 15.1 18.3 146.6 76.4 70.5 0.4 4.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.0 16.0 103.0 60.3 56.9 9.2 12.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 5.3 10.8 13.0 123.8 68.4 63.7 1.8 3.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------