***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.5 7.0 1.2 59.0 58.2 3.0 4.4 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.2 7.3 6.9 1.2 59.1 58.6 3.1 4.3 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.4 7.2 1.2 57.6 58.2 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 3.2 1.3 5.0 1.1 61.2 58.3 -2.5 -0.8 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.0 5.6 1.1 61.6 58.5 3.6 5.0 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 8.4 7.5 4.7 1.4 64.8 60.3 3.3 4.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.4 6.8 1.2 59.9 58.7 2.7 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -0.6 4.8 1.1 60.7 58.3 -3.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.0 6.3 1.1 60.0 58.3 3.4 5.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.3 5.5 1.1 60.7 58.4 3.5 5.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.8 5.5 1.1 59.9 58.7 3.7 5.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.7 5.3 1.1 60.3 58.6 3.2 5.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.1 8.2 5.0 1.3 63.7 59.7 4.4 5.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.9 6.6 1.1 59.8 57.4 3.6 5.3 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.2 5.1 1.0 58.7 57.9 2.5 6.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 10.2 7.7 5.2 1.2 62.1 59.4 4.8 6.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.7 6.7 1.2 60.8 58.7 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.6 5.2 1.1 60.4 58.0 3.6 5.1 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.4 7.4 7.1 1.2 59.0 58.4 3.2 3.9 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 4.0 3.3 1.0 61.7 58.3 0.6 3.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.2 6.7 1.1 59.5 58.1 3.2 4.8 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.9 7.0 1.2 61.3 58.6 3.6 5.1 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.7 7.2 1.2 59.3 58.2 3.8 4.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.9 6.4 1.1 58.0 57.7 3.6 4.8 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.0 5.5 1.1 61.5 58.2 3.1 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.9 8.5 4.8 1.2 64.5 60.0 4.1 6.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.4 6.2 1.2 60.7 58.3 3.4 4.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.8 7.6 5.2 1.1 60.2 58.6 3.7 6.0 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.2 3.0 4.4 1.0 59.3 58.1 0.0 1.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.5 6.7 7.0 1.2 58.2 58.5 2.9 4.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------