***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.4 9.5 6.0 0.7 59.1 56.2 2.1 4.9 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.9 6.0 0.9 60.7 57.7 2.8 5.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.2 6.2 0.6 60.1 55.8 3.7 5.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.6 2.0 4.1 0.8 59.7 57.7 -1.8 0.7 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.5 4.6 0.6 60.1 56.4 3.5 5.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.3 3.6 0.6 58.6 56.7 2.7 5.5 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.6 5.8 0.9 60.4 58.0 2.0 4.8 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.1 0.4 3.7 0.4 57.5 55.0 -3.1 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.0 5.3 0.6 60.0 55.8 4.1 6.5 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.2 4.5 0.4 58.8 55.1 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.5 4.4 0.5 58.1 55.6 3.7 6.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.8 4.2 0.4 57.5 55.1 4.1 6.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.2 6.8 3.9 0.5 58.2 55.9 3.6 5.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.2 5.4 0.4 56.9 54.7 4.7 7.6 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.7 4.3 1.0 58.0 58.6 4.6 6.2 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.3 4.1 0.5 58.3 55.6 4.1 6.4 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.8 5.8 1.0 62.3 58.3 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.4 4.2 0.3 56.2 54.2 4.0 5.8 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.3 6.1 0.8 60.5 57.1 3.0 5.5 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.8 2.2 0.2 51.3 53.8 1.2 2.7 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.0 5.8 0.6 59.7 55.9 3.9 6.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.2 6.0 1.0 63.2 58.2 3.7 6.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.9 6.2 0.6 59.4 56.1 4.1 5.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.8 5.3 0.4 58.0 54.4 4.4 7.2 10.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.8 4.6 0.8 59.4 57.4 3.1 4.5 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.8 3.6 0.4 57.2 56.4 3.3 5.0 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.3 5.3 0.8 59.0 57.0 3.0 4.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.1 9.1 4.3 0.8 59.4 57.4 5.7 7.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.2 3.3 0.2 52.9 53.7 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.0 6.0 0.8 60.4 57.0 2.3 4.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------