***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.5 4.5 5.1 1.0 62.0 59.0 0.5 2.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.6 5.5 5.0 1.0 61.5 59.5 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.3 5.2 0.9 60.0 58.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 0.7 -0.3 3.1 1.1 64.9 61.5 -3.1 -1.2 -0.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.7 3.6 1.0 61.5 60.2 2.4 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 3.9 3.9 2.6 1.1 57.4 59.5 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 2.7 5.1 4.9 1.0 60.9 59.6 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 -1.8 -1.6 2.7 0.7 54.2 56.3 -3.0 -2.2 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.3 6.2 4.3 0.9 58.4 58.5 2.7 4.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.9 3.4 0.7 55.5 56.6 1.8 4.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.1 5.8 3.5 1.0 60.7 60.1 2.5 4.6 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 4.9 5.2 3.3 0.9 57.6 58.7 2.6 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 4.3 4.2 3.0 1.0 55.8 58.8 2.4 3.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.8 4.3 0.4 56.9 54.0 2.4 4.5 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.8 3.3 1.2 67.1 62.5 2.6 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.4 5.5 3.2 1.1 60.7 60.3 2.9 4.7 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.0 5.1 4.7 0.9 61.6 59.3 0.8 2.0 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 3.4 3.2 2.9 0.2 51.6 52.0 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 3.7 5.3 5.1 1.0 61.3 59.1 0.5 2.6 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.0 46.2 48.9 0.4 1.1 1.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.9 6.0 4.8 1.0 60.9 59.2 2.6 4.2 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.1 4.8 0.9 60.4 58.9 1.4 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.3 4.8 5.2 0.9 59.3 58.0 1.2 3.5 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 5.1 5.4 4.2 0.4 54.9 54.2 2.3 4.5 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.0 3.6 0.9 60.7 58.8 1.5 3.1 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 4.9 4.8 2.8 0.9 55.2 58.7 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.8 4.3 0.9 59.8 58.2 0.9 3.4 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.9 5.4 3.3 1.3 66.3 62.5 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 1.4 0.5 2.1 0.1 47.3 49.8 -0.8 0.8 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.7 5.1 1.0 61.5 59.3 0.3 2.9 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------