***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 8.0 8.8 8.2 4.3 92.2 91.3 0.6 2.9 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.5 8.4 7.6 3.9 90.8 89.8 0.5 1.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 7.9 10.3 8.1 3.9 90.2 89.2 0.7 3.6 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 3.2 4.3 3.9 2.6 84.3 81.5 -2.8 -1.1 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 7.1 8.7 5.8 3.1 85.9 83.8 1.8 3.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 6.4 6.9 4.7 2.7 80.8 79.5 1.8 3.4 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.4 8.6 7.6 4.1 91.0 90.6 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 2.0 2.3 4.9 2.3 79.6 78.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 8.3 10.1 7.1 3.4 86.5 85.4 2.0 5.2 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 7.1 8.8 6.0 2.8 82.8 81.2 1.4 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 6.7 8.3 5.8 2.9 82.6 81.4 2.0 4.3 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 7.8 8.3 5.4 2.7 80.9 80.0 1.9 4.1 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 6.2 6.9 5.7 2.7 80.5 79.7 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 7.9 10.3 7.2 2.8 85.2 81.4 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 6.1 7.6 4.6 2.6 82.9 81.0 0.2 2.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 7.3 8.4 5.5 2.9 81.6 80.8 2.6 4.9 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 6.2 8.0 6.9 3.6 90.2 89.0 0.5 1.5 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 5.0 5.6 5.5 2.3 79.8 77.4 1.6 2.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 6.9 10.0 7.7 3.7 90.1 88.9 0.1 2.3 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.6 3.4 1.5 68.9 68.3 -0.1 2.3 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 7.4 10.0 7.8 3.8 88.6 87.9 1.3 4.4 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 6.9 9.7 6.9 3.2 90.0 87.0 0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 5.6 8.9 7.7 3.4 88.3 87.2 0.6 2.0 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 7.5 9.8 7.1 2.9 84.6 82.5 1.6 4.3 5.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 5.2 8.7 6.7 4.0 91.2 90.5 0.9 2.9 4.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 5.6 5.8 4.6 2.4 79.1 78.4 2.9 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 7.0 9.6 7.7 4.4 91.7 91.5 0.9 4.0 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 6.9 8.4 4.4 2.5 81.5 79.1 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 5.4 6.0 4.6 1.9 75.4 73.3 0.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 6.7 8.7 7.9 4.0 91.2 90.3 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------