***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 0.0 1.1 0.3 2.1 82.0 77.8 -3.6 -2.1 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 -0.7 0.5 0.0 2.0 82.4 77.2 -5.5 -2.5 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 1.6 2.3 -0.1 1.8 80.5 76.6 -2.6 -0.7 -0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 -4.6 -3.8 -2.7 2.0 82.7 76.9 -8.4 -6.3 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 1.9 82.7 75.4 -4.5 -3.3 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 -2.3 -1.7 -3.9 2.1 78.4 74.8 -5.1 -4.5 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 -0.7 0.5 0.1 2.1 84.0 77.8 -4.9 -2.1 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -6.9 -6.6 -3.3 2.0 76.7 74.1 -9.1 -8.1 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 -0.7 0.3 -1.6 1.7 81.2 73.8 -3.4 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 -1.1 -0.5 -2.8 1.9 79.1 73.3 -3.9 -2.8 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 -1.5 -0.9 -2.6 1.8 78.4 74.8 -4.1 -3.1 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 -2.2 -1.6 -2.8 2.0 78.3 75.1 -5.1 -4.2 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 -1.6 -1.3 -3.2 1.9 77.2 73.4 -4.1 -3.1 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 -0.4 -0.2 -1.8 1.5 75.0 70.1 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.1 2.0 80.3 76.9 -3.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 -0.6 0.0 -3.0 1.8 78.3 74.4 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 82.7 75.8 -4.7 -2.8 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 -3.4 -3.2 -3.6 1.6 74.4 69.3 -5.9 -4.3 -3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 -0.6 0.3 -0.2 1.9 80.7 76.4 -4.8 -2.8 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 -6.3 -6.1 -5.0 1.7 71.2 68.8 -9.2 -7.9 -6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.2 -0.6 1.8 80.0 75.3 -4.0 -2.6 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.9 81.4 75.2 -4.7 -2.9 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6 1.7 79.2 74.6 -4.2 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 -1.5 -1.4 -2.1 1.4 75.7 70.3 -3.9 -2.5 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 -1.2 0.1 -1.4 2.2 83.6 78.1 -4.2 -3.1 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 -1.7 -1.3 -2.8 2.0 77.4 74.9 -4.4 -3.2 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 -0.3 0.9 -0.5 2.2 82.4 77.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 -1.9 -1.1 -2.6 1.9 80.9 75.8 -4.7 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -3.6 -4.6 -4.4 1.5 69.7 66.7 -6.5 -5.3 -4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 -0.3 0.6 0.1 2.0 81.8 77.6 -4.6 -2.5 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------