***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 -2.6 -1.5 -0.7 1.2 61.5 62.1 -5.7 -3.2 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -1.6 -1.0 1.2 61.2 61.5 -6.1 -2.9 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -0.2 -1.0 1.1 61.9 61.5 -3.3 -1.3 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -5.0 -5.2 -3.4 1.8 69.2 66.6 -9.0 -6.8 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.1 1.7 62.9 64.6 -4.8 -3.1 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 -4.0 -2.4 -4.6 2.0 63.8 64.5 -6.9 -4.5 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -1.7 -1.0 1.3 61.0 62.0 -5.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 -8.4 -8.5 -4.3 1.6 54.9 59.4 -9.7 -8.8 -7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 -0.7 -0.2 -2.3 1.5 62.0 62.9 -4.5 -2.3 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -2.1 -1.9 -3.7 1.5 57.7 60.1 -4.9 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 -1.6 -1.1 -3.2 1.9 61.7 64.3 -4.9 -3.0 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 -3.3 -3.2 -3.4 1.9 58.2 62.7 -6.3 -3.7 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 -2.6 -1.4 -3.8 1.9 60.5 63.3 -5.1 -3.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 -1.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.7 53.9 55.3 -4.5 -1.3 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -0.4 -2.8 1.9 68.9 67.4 -4.0 -2.6 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 -1.0 -1.0 -3.6 2.0 63.4 65.5 -4.9 -2.7 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -2.3 -1.6 -1.2 1.1 59.5 60.7 -5.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -3.6 -4.0 -4.7 0.9 51.4 55.4 -5.8 -4.0 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -1.2 -1.1 1.1 61.0 60.9 -5.3 -2.7 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -7.7 -8.8 -6.5 0.5 46.0 50.5 -10.7 -8.4 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.4 1.3 61.5 62.4 -4.9 -3.2 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2 1.1 60.4 60.2 -5.8 -3.1 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4 0.9 60.6 59.7 -4.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.0 -3.0 0.8 54.3 57.1 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 -1.1 -0.8 -2.4 1.6 66.4 64.5 -5.1 -2.8 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 -3.1 -2.7 -3.5 1.8 59.0 61.9 -5.3 -3.4 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -1.1 -1.5 1.4 62.5 62.6 -5.9 -3.8 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -2.0 -1.0 -3.2 1.9 68.7 67.4 -6.1 -4.7 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 -5.4 -6.3 -5.6 0.6 47.0 52.6 -8.1 -5.7 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -1.2 -0.9 1.2 61.3 61.8 -5.4 -2.9 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------