***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.0 3.2 2.9 4.7 95.3 95.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 -0.6 2.0 2.3 4.3 95.1 94.1 -4.9 -3.0 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.5 2.3 4.2 94.2 93.6 -2.8 -1.2 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.7 -0.6 -0.8 4.0 94.2 92.6 -8.9 -5.9 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -1.1 -0.1 0.1 3.8 91.8 90.5 -4.0 -2.6 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 -1.7 -0.4 -1.9 3.9 87.5 87.7 -4.4 -3.4 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.8 2.4 4.5 95.3 94.5 -4.6 -3.1 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -5.0 -3.5 -0.5 4.5 92.9 92.1 -8.4 -6.4 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.4 1.1 0.5 3.6 90.9 89.6 -3.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.8 0.6 -0.1 4.1 92.3 90.9 -3.8 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 -0.8 0.0 -0.4 3.8 88.7 88.1 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 -1.2 0.0 -0.3 4.2 90.7 90.4 -4.2 -2.9 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.1 3.6 82.9 84.0 -3.7 -2.9 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.1 0.7 3.6 92.1 91.8 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 -0.6 1.4 0.1 3.8 92.7 92.0 -4.6 -2.7 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 -0.3 0.3 -1.0 3.6 85.1 85.8 -3.3 -2.0 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 -0.5 0.8 1.9 4.1 94.9 94.0 -4.8 -3.6 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -1.9 -1.0 -1.0 3.8 89.8 88.2 -4.5 -4.1 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 -0.4 1.6 2.1 4.1 94.7 93.8 -4.8 -2.7 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 -4.3 -2.7 -1.8 4.4 88.8 89.1 -8.8 -6.8 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.0 1.8 4.0 92.7 92.3 -3.8 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 -0.8 1.0 1.9 3.9 94.5 94.2 -4.3 -3.3 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.6 0.8 1.7 3.8 94.0 93.1 -4.4 -3.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 -0.9 -0.1 0.2 3.4 88.2 88.0 -3.8 -3.3 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 -0.7 3.2 1.4 4.6 95.7 95.0 -3.6 -2.3 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.8 0.3 -0.5 4.2 87.1 87.8 -4.0 -2.7 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 -0.4 3.4 2.2 4.6 95.3 94.6 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 -1.3 0.2 -0.6 3.6 90.6 89.9 -5.1 -4.0 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 -2.8 -2.2 -2.0 3.6 82.1 81.9 -6.1 -4.7 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.2 2.5 4.4 95.0 94.2 -4.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------